Jacksonville Jaguars
vs.
Kansas City Chiefs
Week 5
NFL Pick
10/7/2018
By: Jason Green
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1 SU 3-1 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (4-0 SU 4-0 ATS)
The Jaguars advaNCed to the AFC title Game last season with their defense. They have played pretty good D this season ranking first in the league in overall defense. After putting up six points in losing their first Game of the season Jax exploded for 31 in their last Game in a conviNCing 31-12 win over the New York Jets. Their D will get a test in this Game on the road facing a Chiefs’ team that ranks first in the NFL in ppg.
How about them Chiefs? They are with the L.A. Rams as the last two unbeaten teams in the league. Patrick Mahomes has been sensational under center in his first year as a starter and they have Kareem Hunt in the backfield and many weapons, but while 4-0 KC still ranks dead last in the league in overall defense? Can the offense keep lighting it up? Big question facing the Jags and their top-ranked defense.
At 5Dimes sportsbook the Chiefs are a 3-point home favorite with a total sitting at 49.
This season the Jaguars are 3-1 ATS with an O/U record of 2-2 and the Chiefs are 4-0 ATS with an O/U record of 3-1.
The last time these AFC teams met was in 2016 where Kansas City beat Jacksonville 19-14.
In the last five Games between these teams the road team has covered the spread Four times.
The Jags are at 3-1 and atop the AFC South and they beat the Jets badly in their last Game, but they still have issues. Star RB Leonard Fournette is still out with a hamstring injury and while Blake Bortles had a great last Game he cannot be counted on to carry the offense. If the Jags can run, behind TJ Yeldon who gets the nod in this Game, they will be hard to beat and they face a Kansas City run defense that ranks 28th in the league.
Bortles passed for 388 yards with two TD and one INT in the Jags last Game with two TD and a pick. He has some solid targets and Dede Westbrook and Donte MoNCrief each went for at least 109 receiving yards in the win over the Jets. Yeldon rushed for 52 yards, which is not bad, but was bad was averaging a paltry 2.9 yards per carry.
Mahomes has taken Kansas City and the NFL by storm with great play in his Four starts this season where he has 14 TD and has not thrown a pick. He has passed for at least 304 yards in his last three Games and with weapons like Hunt in the backfield, TE Travis Kelse and WR Tyreek Hill Mohomes has many options. The Jaguars’ defense has only given up 21 points in their last three Games, but they have only faced one team with a legit offense in the New England Patriots, who they held to 20 points. Jacksonville has to play a good all-around Game on D to leave KC with a win.
Key Betting Trends
Jaguars
5-1 ATS in their last 6 Games
8-3 ATS in their last 11 Games facing a team with a winning record
10-4 ATS in their last 14 road Games
Chiefs
4-0 ATS in their last 4 Games
4-1 ATS in their last 5 home Games
Under record of 5-0 in their last 5 Games facing a team with a winning record
Jason’s Pick: This Game will be a close one, but have to go with the Chiefs at home giving 4.5 points. Mahomes will have some problems with the Jaguars defense, but he will also make some plays. On the other side of the coin Kansas City will keep Bortles and the Jax running Game in check. The Chiefs will win this Game and stay undefeated and they will also cover the spread.