Jaguars
vs.
Titans
Week 17
NFL Pick
12/31/17
By: Jason Green
Jacksonville Jaguars (10-5 SU 9-6 ATS) vs. Tennessee Titans (8-7 SU 7-7-1 ATS)
The Jaguars have already wrapped up the AFC South title, but with their loss last week they cannot be the #1 or #2 seed in the AFC so they will not get a bye. They had their three-Game win streak snapped in their last Game against a suddenly hot 49ers team. Jacksonville is led by their top-ranked rushing offense and while they rank 2nd in the NFL in points against they GAve up 44 points in their last Game.
At 5 dimes sportsbook the Titans are the 3-point favorite with a total of 42.
Hard to believe that the Titans are still alive for the playoffs even though they have lost three in a row. They will make the playoffs if they beat the Jaguars or if the Buffalo Bills and L.A. Chargers both lose. They have played two close Games in a row, but in their three-Game skid their rushing attack has struggled and they have only faced one team that has a winning record.
Earlier this season at Jacksonville the Titans beat the Jaguars 37-16.
The favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 Games between these teams.
In their last Game the Jaguars were on the road and they lost to the San Francisco 49ers 44-33. While Jax had over 100 more yards in the Game (472-369) they GAve up 21 points in the 4th quarter and they had three turnovers while they only forced one. Blake Bortles passed for 382 yards with two TD, but he ACCounted for all of the turnovers with three INT. Keelan Cole led the team with 108 receiving yards and the Jags rushed for 92 yards with Leonard Fournette only rushing for 48 yards leading the club and averaged a weak 2.7 yards per carry. Fournette did have over 100 yards in the previous Game, but in two of his last three Games he has failed to average over three yards per carry. The Titans have a legit run defense ranking 5th in the league, but their pass D only ranks 25th. This season the Jaguars are 4-3 on the road.
The Titans lost their 3rd in a row in their last Game falling to the L.A. Rams 27-23 at home. Tennessee was out-GAined 402 yards to 366 yards and their rushing offense struggled again with only 97 yards on the ground. Marcus Mariota did pass for 275 yards, but he did not have a TD and was picked off oNCe and Corey Davis and Eric Decker combined for 164 receiving yards. DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry only combined for 83 rushing yards and neither of them averaged over 3.2 yards per carry. Murray did not practice on Wednesday and is questionable for this Game.
This season the Titans are 5-2 at home.
The Jaguars rank 1st in the league in pass defense and only 21st in run defense. In their loss to the Titans in the 2nd Game of the season Jax GAve up 390 total yards, iNCluding 179 rushing yards.
The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Games facing a team with a winning record, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home Games, and in their last 5 Games they have an Over record of 4-1.
The Titans are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home Games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Games facing a team with a winning record, and in their last 6 home Games they have an Over record of 5-1.
Jason’s Pick: The Titans are in a must-win Game, but they have not looked good in the last few weeks. I look for their rushing offense to struggle again and for Jax to run the ball well. I think this Game will be a close one and while the Jags may not get the W they will cover the spread.