Chiefs vs. Chargers NFL Pick against the Spread

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Kansas City Chiefs

vs.

L.A. Chargers

Preview 

9/9/18   

 

By: Jason Green 

  

 

Kansas City Chiefs (0-0 SU 0-0 ATS) vs. L.A. Chargers (0-0 SU 0-0 ATS)

 

Right off the bat the AFC West heats up with the Chargers hosting the Chiefs in the opening Games of the season for both teams. Kansas City made the playoffs last season, but lost in the Wild Card Game and this season they have higher expectations. However, they head into the season with a new QB in 2nd year man Patrick Mahomes. He takes over for the departed Alex Smith and while he has a lot of pressure on him he does have some great weapons on the offensive side of the ball to work with. 

The Chargers are being picked by many experts to win the AFC West this season. They finished last season at 9-7 missing out on the playoffs, but that record is a pretty good one considering the team beGAn the season 0-4. Phillip Rivers had another big season and while the defense was great against the pass they struggled, big time, against the run. 

To say the Chiefs have dominated the Chargers in the last few seasons would be an understatement. They have won their last eight Games facing them and have not suffered a loss against them since back in the 2013 season. 

At 5Dimes sportsbook the Chargers are a 3.5-point favorite with a total sitting at 48. 

Last season the Chiefs were 10-7 ATS and they had an Over/Under record of 8-9 and the Chargers were 8-7-1` ATS and they had an Over/Under record of 4-12. 

The Chiefs have covered the spread in their last five road Games facing the Chargers and they have covered in seven of their last nine Games against them overall. 

Mahomes comes into a great situation for KC not having to do it all. In the backfield they have 2nd year RB Kareem Hunt, who won the rushing title as a rookie, but still do not get Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. The WR corps is a good one led by Tyreek Hill and they have, arguably, the best TE in the Game in Travis Kelce. The Chiefs offense can be a dynamic one, but it will all depend on how Mahomes handles the pressure. While L.A. has a great pass defense their pass rush is a big coNCern and last season ranked last in the NFL with only 18 sacks. 

KC’s issues last season were on the defensive side of the ball where they only ranked 29th in pass defense and 25th in run defense. However, in sweeping the two-Game series with the Chargers last season they only GAve up 23 points in the two wins. 

Rivers passed for over 4,500 yards last season and the #1 WR in Keenan Robinson was finally healthy for a full season and had nearly 1,400 receiving yards. Melvin Gordon rushed for 1,105 yards and is the lead back to take the pressure off Rivers. L.A. has the weapons, they also brought back TE Antonio GAtes, and they are at home, but will their run D let them down? 

Key Betting Trends 

Chiefs 

4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games

1-4 ATS in their last 5 road Games

19-7 ATS in their last 26 Games against teams from the AFC West 

Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 Games 

 

Chargers  

4-1 ATS in their last 5 home Games  

0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 Games in September

Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 home Games 

 

Jason’s Pick: The road team has covered the spread in five of the last six Games between these division rivals. However, that trend will not continue. This Game will be a close one, but Rivers will have a big day against the secondary of the Chiefs and the Chargers will get the home win and cover the spread as well.