Detroit Lions
at
Minnesota Vikings
NFL Pick
Betting Line
11/4/2018
By: Jason Green
Detroit Lions (3-4 SU 5-2 ATS) vs. Minnesota Vikings (4-3-1 SU 4-3-1 ATS)
The Lions had won two in a row before a loss in their last Game, which dropped them to under .500 on the season. Still, they are in the wide-open NFC North where they are in last place at 3-4 while the Chicago Bears are in first place at only 4-3. Detroit had scored at least 31 points in winning two in a row before only scoring 14 points in their last Game. The offense ranks in the middle of the pack in ppg, but their D only ranks 25th giving up an average of 26.6 ppg.
The Vikings had their three-Game win streak snapped in their last Game, where they shot themselves in the foot with costly mistakes. They GAve up two TD on turnovers and GAve up 30 points. Minnesota could really use a win with a killer upcoming Schedule, as after this Game they face the Bears, Packers, Patriots, and Seahawks in their next Four Games. Kirk Cousins has played pretty well in his first season for the Vikings, but has not gotten much help from the run Game, which ranks 29th in the league in rushing yards per Game.
At 5Dimes sportsbook the Vikings are a 6.5-point home favorite with a total that has not yet been posted.
This season the Lions are 5-2 ATS with an O/U record of 5-2 and the Vikings are 4-3-1 ATS with an O/U record of 4-4.
This is the first Game between these two NFC North rivals this season and last season they split the two meetings with each winning on the road.
The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five Games between these teams.
The Lions were at home in their last Game and lost to the Seattle Seahawks 28-14. They GAve up 413 yards in the Game, only rushed for 34 yards, and committed three turnovers while not forcing any.
Matthew Stafford passed for 310 yards with two TD and one INT and Marvin Jones Jr. led the team with 117 receiving yards and had two TD. Kerryon Johnson only had 22 rushing yards to lead Detroit and that was not quite as good as his previous Game where he GAlloped for 158 yards. He did have six catches for 69 yards in the loss to Seattle, but in the Lions three wins he has averaged 109.7 rushing yards per Game while in the Four losses has averaged 34.3 rushing yards per Game.
While the Vikings GAve up 30 points in their last Game they only GAve up 270 total yards and their D has been pretty solid in their last few Games.
The Vikings lost to the New Orleans Saints 30-20 in their last Game where they had 163 more yards (423 to 270), but GAve up a TD on a pick-6 and a fumble recovery. Cousins passed for 359 yards with two TD and an INT and Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen combined for 222 receiving yards. Thielen has eight straight Games of at least 100 receiving yards and leads the NFL in that category, but his fumble in the 2nd quarter was returned for a TD and took the win out of the sails of the Vikings. LAtavius Murray rushed for 56 yards to lead the team in the New Orleans loss.
The Lions have played good pass defense this season, but their run defense ranks 2nd to last in the league.
Key Betting Trends
Lions
5-1 ATS in their last 6 Games
4-1 ATS in their last 5 road Games
Over record of 7-2 in their last 7 road Games
Vikings
11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 Games facing a team with a losing record
35-16-2 in their last 53 home Games
Under record of 6-2 in their last 8 home Games
Jason’s Pick: While the road team has covered the spread in Four of the last five Games between these division rivals that trend will not continue. Cousins will have a solid Game as will the Minnesota defense and they will get the win and cover at home sending Detroit to their 2nd straight loss.