Green Bay Packers
vs.
New England Patriots
Week 9
NFL Pick
Betting Line
11/4/2018
By: Jason Green
Green Bay Packers (3-3-1 SU 3-4 ATS) vs. New England Patriots (6-2 SU 5-3 ATS)
Oh, what could have been. Green Bay’s Ty Montgomery fumbled late in the Packers last Game not allowing Aaron Rodgers to produce another late comeback in a two-point loss to the L.A. Rams. With the loss the Packers fell to 3-3-1, but are still well in the NFC North race trailing the Chicago Bears, who sit at 4-3. However, Green Bay has lost two of their last three Games, is 0-3 on the road, and in this Game face Tom Brady and the defending AFC champion Patriots.
The Patriots are coming off a 23-6 win over the Buffalo Bills on Monday night where their defense was awesome. Ok, so it was the Bills and you can be sure Rodgers and the Packers 5th ranked passing offense will test that New England D. The Pats have won five in a row and are in first place in the AFC East as the only team in the division with a winning record.
At 5Dimes sportsbook the Patriots are a 6.5-point home favorite with a total of 57.5.
This season the Packers are 3-4 ATS with an O/U record of 5-2 and the Patriots are 5-3 ATS with an O/U record of 4-4.
These teams have not met since the 2014 season.
The Packers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six Games facing the Patriots.
The Packers were in LA LA LAnd in their last Game and fell to the L.A. Rams losing 29-27. They were outGAined 416 yards to 359 yards and had the Game’s only turnover, which was costly to say the least.
Rodgers passed for 286 yards with one TD and no INT and Davante Adams, who leads the Packers in receiving yards, had a big Game with 133 receiving yards. TE Jimmy Graham only had one catch and Green Bay needs to get him the rock more in this Game. Aaron Jones rushed for 86 yards and he had only totaled 81 yards in his previous two Games.
The Pats’ run defense ranks in the middle of the pack, but their pass defense only ranks 27th, which is not good with Rodgers coming to town. Not only that, but New England’s pass rush has not been good this season, as they rank 29th in the league with only 12 sacks in eight Games.
New England had no problem on Monday night beating AFC East rival Buffalo 25-6. They did give up 333 yards, they had 387 yards, but they also forced two turnovers while not committing any.
Brady passed for 324 yards with no TD and no INT and Julian Edelman had 104 receiving yards. New England only had 76 rushing yards in the Game led by Cordarrelle Patterson, who had 38 yards on the ground to lead the team. The team’s leading RB on the season in Sony Michel did not play in the Bills Game due to a knee injury and his status is up in the air for this big non-Conference Game.
The Packers rank a legit 5th in the league in pass defense, but only 22nd in run defense.
Key Betting Trends
Packers
1-4 ATS in their last 5 road Games
3-7 ATS in their last 10 Games
Over record of 23-7 in their last 30 Games
Patriots
7-0 ATS in their last 7 home Games facing a team with a losing road record
35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 home Games
Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 Games following a win
Jason’s Pick: The Packers are 0-3 on the road and not over .500, but they are still the pick in this Game. If not for a fumble late in the last Game we may have seen Rodgers have more late Game magic and hand the Rams their first loss. I see a close Game in this one and Green Bay may not win, but they will cover getting 6.5 points.