New England Patriots
vs.
Chicago Bears
Week 7
NFL Pick
10/21/2018
By: Jason Green
New England Patriots (4-2 SU 3-3 ATS) vs. Chicago Bears (3-2 SU 3-2 ATS)
The Patriots won their third in a row in their last Game beating the Kansas City Chiefs 43-40 in a barnburner. They showed they are still THE team to beat in the AFC handing the Chiefs their first loss of the season. New England has scored at least 38 points in each of their last three Games, but they are not the same old usual Pats’ team. Even with Tom Brady they only rank 19th in the league in passing yards per Game and a legit 11th in rushing yards per Game.
The Bears had their three-Game win streak snapped in their last Game falling to the Miami Dolphins 31-28 in overtime. Chicago is led by their defense, which had only given up a total 41 points in their three-Game win streak before giving up 31 to Miami. Chicago ranks 4th in the league in points allowed per Game and while not a dynamic offense they are getting in the end zone and rank 10th in ppg.
At 5Dimes sportsbook the Patriots are a 3.5-point road favorite with a total sitting at 49.5.
This season the Patriots are 3-3 ATS with an O/U record of 3-3 and the Bears are 3-2 ATS with an O/U record of 3-2.
These teams have not met since the 2014 season.
The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 Games between these teams.
The Patriots won their big Sunday Night Game facing the Chiefs where they forced two turnovers, ranked up 500 yards of total offense and rushed for 173 yards. Brady only had one TD, but also passed for 340 yard and he was not picked off. Rob Gronkowski had 97 receiving yards to lead five players that had at least 42 receiving yards. One of the big keys in the Game was the play of rookie RB Sony Michel, who rushed for 106 yards with two TD and averaged 4.4 yards per carry. Michel has rushed for at least 98 yards in three straight Games.
It is pretty obvious that the Bears need to come out and play better defense in this Game than their last one where they GAve up 541 total yards (380 passing yards 161 rushing yards. Easier said than done facing Brady and company.
The Bears had a good Game on offense in the loss to the Dolphins with 467 total yards and they had good balaNCe, but the three turnovers did not help. They did force three turnovers as well, but when you give up over 500 total yards it is hard to get a W. Mitchell Trubisky had a shaky first half, but came alive in the 2nd half and in the Game passed for 316 yards with three TD and one INT Jordan Howard led Chicago with 69 rushing yards and Trubisky chimed in for 47 rushing yards. In his last two Games Trubisky has nine TD and one pick and has also combined to rush for 100 yards.
The Patriots rank 21st in the league in pass defense and 18th in run defense. While New England held the Chiefs to only nine points in the first half in their last Game they GAve up 31 points in the 2nd half.
Key Betting Trends
Patriots
14-5 ATS in their last 19 road Games
31-13 ATS in their last 44 Games
Under record of 5-01 in their last 6 road Games
Bears
4-0 ATS in their last 4 Games after a loss
5-2 ATS in their last 7 Games
11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 home Games
Under record of 7-3 in their last 10 home Games
Jason’s Pick: Can the Bears get back to playing solid defense in this Game facing the Patriots, who have won three in a row? I would say probably not. While they may not allow Brady and Michel to have huge Games they will not be able to keep them from moving the chains. Chicago will keep this Game relatively close, but they will take their 2nd loss in a row with the Pats getting their 4th straight win and covering the spread as well.