Patriots – Lions Free Pick against the Spread

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New England Patriots

vs.

Detroit Lions 

Week 3

NFL Preview

9/23/18   

By: Jason Green 

  

New England Patriots (1-1 SU 1-1 ATS) vs. Detroit Lions (0-2 SU 1-1 ATS)

The Patriots are coming off their first loss of the season losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars 31-20 in a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship Game. They fell behind early in the Game like in the title Game last season, but this time round Brady and the Pats could not work their magic. They are pretty big road betting favorites in this Sunday night NBC Game facing a winless Lions’ team. 

The Lions have not gotten off to a good start under new head coach Matt Patricia, who was the defensive coordinator for the Patriots for several seasons. Detroit ranks tied for 2nd to last in the league in ppg and, no surprise, they have not been able to run the ball. Matt Stafford is still their big gun and one thing the team has working for them is that he will be facing a Patriots’ team that GAve up 376 passing yards in the loss to Jax. 

At 5Dimes sportsbook the Patriots are a 6.5-point favorite with a total sitting at 52. 

In the early season the Patriots are 1-1 ATS with an O/U record of 1-1 and the Lions are 1-1 ATS with an O/U record of 2-0. 

These teams have not met since the 2014 season.

In the Patriots 31-20 loss to the Jags in their last Game they GAve up 480 total yards, were torched in the air, and they were down 14-0 after the first quarter. Tom Brady passed for 234 yards with two TD and no INT and he spread the wealth. New England recently traded for troubled WR Josh Gordon and he may or may not go in this Game for his new team. 

New England has not been able to generate much help for Brady, as Rex Burkhead is their leading rusher with 86 yards while no other player has rushed for more than 34. The Pats may want to hit the ground more in this Game facing a Detroit team that ranks dead last in the league defending the run. 

After bad loss in their season opener the Lions also lost their last Game, but it was closer falling to the San Francisco 49ers 30-27. While the Lions had more yards in the Game (427 to 346) they committed the Game’s only turnover and they rushed for only 98 yards while San Fran rushed for 190 yards. 

In the loss to the 49ers Stafford passed for 347 yards on a whopping 53 passes and Golden Tate led the way with 109 receiving yards. Kerryon Johnson led the Lions with 43 rushing yards in the Game and he and LeGArrette Blount have to run the ball to help Stafford out. The Pats; only rank 23rd in the league in pass defense and 27th in run defense. 

 

Key Betting Trends 

Patriots  

14-4 ATS in their last 18 road Games

8-1 ATS in their last 9 Games facing a team with a losing record 

Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 road Games 

 

Lions 

5-2 ATS in their last 7 Games after ACCumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous Game

2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 Games after ACCumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous Game

Over record of 8-2 in their last 10 home Games 

 

Jason’s Pick: The Patriots will win this Game over an inferior Lions’ team, but it will not be an easy win. New England has many issues such as their defense and their WR situation and they will not dominate this Game. However, Brady will come through and the Pats will pull away in the 2nd half and get the W in the Motor City and also cover the spread.