L.A. Rams
vs.
New Orleans Saints
NFL Pick
Betting Line
11/4/2018
By: Jason Green
L.A. Rams (8-0 SU 4-4 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (6-1 SU 5-2 ATS)
The Rams kept their perfect record in tact in their last Game being tested in a close Game with the Green Bay Packers and now head to the Big Easy to try to do the same. L.A. is 8-0, but they have not been blowing out teams, as in Four of their last five Games they have won by a TD or less. Still, the Rams are balanced and solid on both sides of the ball ranking 3rd in the league in ppg and 6th in points allowed.
The Saints have won six in a row after losing their season opener and they are in first place in the NFC South. They have won three of their last Four Games by double figures and while they don’t have the best defense, ranking 23rd in points allowed, Drew Brees leads an offense that ranks 2nd in the league averaging 33.4 ppg.
At 5Dimes sportsbook the Saints are a 2-point home favorite with a total of 60.
This season the Rams are 4-4 ATS with an O/U record of 3-5 and the Saints are 5-2 ATS with an O/U record of 3-5.
These teams met last season in L.A. where the Rams beat the Saints 26-20.
The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six Games between these teams.
In their last Game, the Rams were at home and beat the Green Bay Packers 29-27. The Rams out-GAined the Packers 416 yards to 359 yards and they were 8/18 on 3rd down while holding Green Bay to 2/9 on 3rd down. They forced the Game’s only turnover and it was a big one when they were up two with just over two minutes left and forced a fumble not allowing Aaron Rodgers to give the Packers a chance to win.
Jared Goff was solid, especially in the 2nd half, and was 19/35 for 295 yards with three TD and no picks. Todd Gurley had a big Game rushing for 114 yards and he also led the Rams with 81 receiving yards and a TD. Goff has the weapons on the outside and Gurley is in the early MVP debate. Gurley leads the NFL in rushing yards and Goff has five TD and no INT in his last two Games.
While the Saints have the top-ranked run defense in the league they only rank 28th in pass defense.
The Saints only had 270 total yards in the Game, they GAve up 423 yards, but they scored a TD on a pick-6 and Wil LUtz nained two 42-yard field goals and a 52-yard one as well.
Drew Brees only passed for 120 yards with one TD and an INT and Michael Turner was his leading receiver with 81 yards. Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara combined for 108 yards, but while Kamara had a TD he only averaged 3.5 yards per carry.
The Rams have a balanced defense that ranks 10th in the league against the pass and 12th against the run.
The pass rush will, obviously, be key in this Game with Goff and Brees under center and while the Rams are tied for the 8th most sacks in the league the Saints only rank 23rd in sacks.
Key Betting Trends
Rams
1-4 ATS in their last 5 Games
2-5 ATS in their last 7 Games facing teams from the NFC
Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 road Games facing a team with a winning home record
Saints
5-0 ATS in their last 5 Games
24-5 ATS in their last 29 home Games facing a team with a winning road record
Over record of 18-7-1 in their last 26 home Games
Jason’s Pick: In their last five Games the Saints are 5-0 ATS and the Rams are only 1-4 ATS. Look for those trends to continue in this Game. New Orleans will get a good Game from Brees and the run Game and what may be a shootout in the Big Easy the Saints will get the win, cover the spread, and hand the Rams their first loss of the season.