Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers – Week 15 NFL Betting Analysis
Chicago Bears (7-6 4-9 ATS) at Green Bay Packers (10-3 8-5 ATS)
The Packers can clinch a playoff berth in this game where they are a 4.5-point favorite facing the Chicago Bears with the total sitting at 41.
The public has slightly backed the Bears in this NFC North showdown, as they opened as a 5-point underdog and as of Wednesday are a 4.5-point dog.
While the Bears have won three in a row their playoff chances are still pretty slim. They are three games back of Green Bay in the NFC North and two games back of the Minnesota Vikings, who they play on the road in the season finale, for the last NFC Wild Card.
The Packers have won three of their last four games, including their last two, but they were not that impressive in a 20-15 home win in their last game against a Washington Redskins’ team that has three wins.
Chicago beat the Dallas Cowboys 31-24 in their last game to go above .500 on the season. Their offense ranks near the middle of the pack in passing and rushing yards but the team has put up 55 points in their last two games.
These old division foes met in the Windy City in the first game of the season and the Packers’ defense came up big in a 10-3 win over the Bears. The Green Bay defense got off to a great start this season but has had their issues in the 2nd half.
Green Bay has only played one team in their last five games that currently has a winning record in the San Francisco 49ers, and they lost that game 37-8.
Trubisky Gets it Done
Mitchell Trubisky has taken a lot of heat this season and it remains to be seen if he is their QB of the future. He ranks 25th in the NFL in QBR but in his last two games, he has passed for three TD and one INT in each and in the last win over Dallas he even ran for a score.
Rookie David Montgomery has also had a tough season and is only averaging 3.5 yards per carry. However, in the last two games, he has rushed for 86 and 75 yards, respectively, and has averaged at least 4.3 yards per carry in each game.
Can Trubisky and Montgomery make it a third straight game of playing well on the road at Lambeau? They will be facing a Green Bay defense that has regressed in the 2nd half and ranks 21st in the league against the pass and 25th against the run.
Rodgers vs. the Bears’ Defense
Probably the biggest matchup in this game is Aaron Rodgers facing the Bears’ defense, which ranks 10th in the league. He ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of QBR and his line has not been great at protection, but he has not been picked off in his last seven games.
Aaron Jones rushed for a season-high 134 yards in the win over the Redskins last week and this after combining for only 56 yards in his previous two games.
Green Bay only had 213 total yards and 47 rushing yards in their opening 10-3 win over the Bears in Chicago. Needless to say, with their defense in the last few games Rodgers and Jones need to step it up in this game, as they will not kill it on D again against the Bears, who are suddenly solid on the offensive side of the ball.
This season the Packers are 6-1 at home and the Bears are 3-3 on the road.
The Packers have covered the spread in 13 of their last 18 games facing the Bears.
The Bears have played well as of late, but you cannot go against Rodgers in Lambeau in December. The Packers will sew up a playoff berth in a win and while it may be ugly they will still get the W and cover the spread.
PICK: Packers -4.5