Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers – Week 6 NFL Betting Analysis
Detroit Lions (2-1-1 3-1 ATS) at Green Bay Packers (4-1 4-1 ATS)
The Lions are coming off a bye week and the Packers are coming off a big win and at home they are favored by 4.5-points in this Monday Night NFC North matchup with a total at 47.
Public money has been on the Lions in this game, as they opened as a 5.5-point underdog and are now a 4.5-point underdog.
The Lions are coming off a tough 34-30 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs where they gave up a late TD. The offense has been there for Detroit for the season, but the defense has issues, especially the pass defense, which ranks 3rd to last in the league.
Green Bay was on the road in their last game where they were up big against the Dallas Cowboys and held on in a 34-24 win. They gave up over 550 total yards allowing Dak Prescott to pass for a career high 463 yards but most of those yards came in the 2nd half when the cowboys mounted a comeback after being shutout in the first half. The Packers’ defense did pick off Prescott three times.
The Lions not only won both games against the Packers last season, but they have covered the spread in their last four games against them.
In each team’s last seven Monday Night games the Lions are 5-2 ATS and the Packers are 2-5 ATS.
Close, but No Cigar
In the loss to the Chiefs previous to their bye week the Lions came close to handing Kansas City their first loss of the season but gave up a TD with a little over two minutes left in the game and could not come back.
The Lions forced three turnovers in the KC game and committed two and Mathew Stafford passed for 291 yards with two TD and was not picked off. Detroit rushed for 186 yards in the game and after a season-high of 49 yards Kerryon Johnson rushed for 125 yards.
One of the concerns for the Lions in this game has to be the Green Bay pass rush. They had three sacks in the win over Dallas, with Za’Darius Smith having two of them and five on the season, and Detroit gave up four sacks in their loss to the Chiefs.
No Rodgers’ TD’s in a Win?
In the win over the Cowboys in their last game Aaron Rodgers (231 yards) did not have any TD but was also not picked off either.
Aaron Jones was the big star in the big win over Dallas, as he rushed for 107 yards with four TD and also led the team with 75 receiving yards.
Rodgers has only passed for six TD this season but also only has two INT and he may get one of his big-time WR’s back in this game. Devante Adams missed the Cowboys game with a toe injury and in the previous game in the loss to the Eagles he went off for 180 receiving yards. He is listed as questionable for this Monday Night game.
Our Prediction
The favorite has covered the spread in 19 of the last 26 games between these division rivals.
The Lions have not only covered the spread in four of their last five road games but are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after a bye week.
In the season finale between these teams last season in Green Bay the Lions shut out the Packers beating them 31-0 knocking Rodgers out of the game early. The total for that game went Under while in the previous six meetings the total went Over.
The Lions are a good team, but the Packers are a great team. They will look to establish the run in this game and be successful while Rodgers will have another solid game. I look for the Packers to easily win this Monday Night game and cover the spread moving to 5-1 on the season.
PICK: Packers -4.5