Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs – Week 15 NFL Betting Analysis
Denver Broncos (5-8 8-5 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (9-4 8-5 ATS)
The Kansas City Chiefs are in the playoffs and they are a 9.5-point home betting favorite against the Denver Broncos, who have won two in a row. The total for this AFC West showdown sits at 46.
The public has, actually, backed the Broncos in this game, as they opened as a big 11.5-point underdog and as of Wednesday they are a 9.5-point underdog.
The Broncos have won their last two games and one of the main reasons is rookie QB Drew Lock. He missed most of the season on IR but has come back and played well but may not get a good homecoming at Arrowhead after playing his college ball at nearby Missouri.
The Chiefs got a little revenge in their last game beating the New England Patriots 23-16 on the road while losing to them at home in last season’s AFC title game.
Earlier this season in Denver the Chiefs throttled the Broncos 30-6.
The Chiefs have won three in a row and if the season ended today they would be in the 3rd spot in the AFC. They trail the Pats by one game in the conference and need them to lose to have any chance to get a bye in the first round.
The big news for KC is that star QB is dealing with a throwing-hand injury and while listed as questionable he will go in this game.
The Broncos had covered the spread in seven straight games facing the Chiefs before failing to do so in their bad loss to them at home earlier this season.
Is Lock the Savior?
The Broncos have been looking for a legit QB since Peyton Manning left and have they found that in Drew Lock? The 2nd round pick of the last draft has won his last two starts and in the win over Texas, he had a great game with three TD and one INT passing for 309 yards.
Lock has not had a lot of help from the ground game, as the Broncos leading rusher on the season Phillip Lindsay has rushed for at least 58 yards in each of his last two games but did not average over 3.4 yards per carry in either of them.
Lock has only been sacked once in his first two starts and in this game, the Denver offensive line faces a solid KC pass rush that has 37 sacks on the season.
The Chiefs’ defense has played well in the last two games and on the season they rank 12th in the league in pass defense and 28th in run defense. Lindsay will get his chances in this game and has to take some pressure off Lock. The more successful Lindsay is the more it will help keep the dynamic offense of the Chiefs off the field.
Defense Has Stepped Up
While Patrick Mahomes and his many weapons and gets the press for KC their defense has stepped up in the last two games only allowing 25 points.
Mahomes passed for 283 yards with a TD and an INT in the win over the Patriots and he has only been sacked once in each of his last two games.
The Chiefs only rushed for 75 yards in the win over New England and only rushed for 80 in the earlier win this season over the Broncos. LeSean McCoy led the team with only 39 rushing yards against New England and as the Chiefs leading rusher on the season he has not rushed for over 40 yards in his last five games.
While KC beat Denver 30-6 earlier this season they only had 271 total yards.
The Denver defense ranks 6th in the league against the pass but only 21st against the run.
The Chiefs are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against the Broncos.
I think the Broncos have good value getting nearly 10 points from the Chiefs. They are playing well with Lock under center and the team has confidence heading to KC. I do not think they will win but they will cover the spread.
PICK: Broncos +9.5