Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos – Week 7 NFL Betting Analysis
Kansas City Chiefs (4-2 3-3 ATS) at Denver Broncos (2-4 3-3 ATS)
The Chiefs have lost two in a row and even on the road they are a 3.5-point betting favorite facing the Broncos, who have won their last two games.
I guess we can pump the brakes on penciling in the Chiefs for the AFC title game, as they have lost two games in a row. Their run game has not helped Patrick Mahomes much and the defense ranks only 28th in the league.
Most of the public has rolled with the Broncos in this game, as they opened as a 4.5-point underdog and on Monday are q 3.5-point dog.
While both games between these teams were close last season the Chiefs took both matchups.
In their last game the Broncos beat the Tennessee Titans 16-10 while the Chiefs lost to the Houston Texans 31-24.
The Chiefs have covered in six of their last seven games facing the Broncos with the lone game they did not cover coming last season.
It Helps to have a Defense
The Kansas City defense gave up 472 total yards in their loss to the Texans and in their last two games have given up at least 180 rushing yards in each of the last two games.
Mahomes has been solid on the season even though he is dealing with an ankle injury and in the last game he while he passed for 273 yards with a TD and one INT, which was his first pick of the season. Even in the loss star WR Tyreek Hill played in his first game and led the Chiefs with 80 receiving yard and has two TD.
LeSean McCoy is averaging 5.4 yards per carry on the season and leads the Chiefs in rushing yards. He has not had a big workload and while averaging more than five yards per carry in the loss to the Texans game he only had eight carries and his season high is 11 carries.
Mahomes has a tall task facing a Broncos pass D that ranks 4th in the league but their run defense only ranks 18th.
Defense does the trick
In their 16-0 win over the Titans in their last game the Broncos offense was not great, but their defense was holding Tennessee to only 204 yards. They killed the run game only allowing 39 rushing yards.
Joe Flacco has been decent, at best, in his first season in Denver and in the Tennessee game he passed for 173 yards with an INT and did not have a TD.
One player that is key in this game is Broncos RB Phillip Lindsey, who has 184 rushing yards in the last two games and rushed for 70 yards in the shutout win over Tennessee.
The Chiefs face the Packers and Vikings in their next two games and this one is key for them. KC still sits atop the AFC West at 4-2 but the Raiders had a bye this week and are at 3-2.
KC’s defense has had issues for the last couple of seasons and this one is no different. Their run D only ranks 30th in the league and they have to contain Lindsey or Denver will control the clock.
The Chiefs were dominated in the time of possession battle in the loss to Houston and they only ran 47 players and they allowed the Texans to run 83 plays.
The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in their last three games while the Broncos have covered in their last two games.
The Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games facing the Broncos and look for that trend to continue.
Mahomes and the KC offense will put it together in this game in Denver and get back to lighting up the scoreboard and putting up a lot of points. The Broncos may keep it close for a while, but the Chiefs will win and cover in this AFC West matchup.
PICK: Chiefs -3.5