Kansas City Chiefs vs. Chicago Bears – Week 16 NFL Betting Analysis
Kansas City Chiefs (10-4 9-5 ATS) at Chicago Bears (7-7 4-10 ATS)
The Chiefs head to Chicago in hopes of improving their playoff seed in the AFC facing a Bears’ team that is out of the playoff picture. Kansas City is a six-point favorite in this non-conference game with the total sitting at 45.
The public has backed the Chiefs in this one, as they opened as a 4.5-point favorite and as of Thursday they are a 6-point favorite.
The Chiefs have the 3rd seed in the AFC and need to pass the New England Patriots, who they beat a couple of weeks ago, to get a first-round bye since they trail them one game. KC has won four in a row and their defense has only surrendered 19 points in their last two games.
Chicago has been a disappointment this season at 7-7 and their offense is the main reason. They had won three in a row before losing their last game 21-13 where they were eliminated from the playoffs.
The Chiefs are coming off a dominating 23-3 win over the Denver Broncos in their last game. On the other side of the coin the Bears lost to the Packers where they had many more overall yards (415-292) but had three turnovers.
Not only have the Chiefs won their last four games but they covered the spread in all of them.
Mahomes Still the Man While KC D has Been the Star
Patrick Mahomes has played great since coming back from injury several games back and while his name is the big one for the Chiefs their defense has been the star in the last couple of games. In the win over Denver in their last game KC only gave up 252 total yards and only allowed 52 rushing yards.
In this non-conference game, the KC defense looks to shut down a Bears’ offense that only ranks 26th in the league. The Chiefs added another piece to their defense recently claiming former Defensive Player of the Year Terrell Suggs off waivers.
In the Denver game, Mahomes passed for 340 yards with two TD and an INT and TE Travis Kelse was his main target with 142 receiving yards.
The Chiefs are going with the RB by committee method and in the win over the Broncos the team had 98 rushing yards with Darwin Thompson having 38 rushing yards and Spencer Ware had 26 rushing yards.
Chicago has a defense that ranks 13th in the league against the pass and 6th against the run.
Hold onto the Rock
The Bears had their chances in Green Bay in their last game, but the turnovers killed them.
Mitchell Trubisky and David Montgomery had two solid games in a row before each did not fare well in the loss to the Packers. Trubisky, who only ranks tied for 27th in the league in QBR, did pass for 322 yards with a score but also threw two INT. Montgomery, who had rushed for 161 yards in two games, only rushed for 39 yards in the loss to Chicago averaging a paltry 2.8 yards per carry.
The Kansas City defense ranks 11th against the pass and 26th against the run. However, their run D has not given up more than 94 yards in their last two games.
Our Prediction
The Bears have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 games and look for that trend to continue. KC still can get a first-round bye in the playoffs with a strong finish and some help from the Patriots. Mahomes will have a big game and the KC defense will as well, for the 3rd straight game, and the Chiefs will win in the Windy City and cover the spread.
PICK: Chiefs -6