New Orleans Saints vs. Tennessee Titans – Week 16 NFL Betting Analysis
New Orleans Saints (11-3 9-5 ATS) at Tennessee Titans (8-6 7-6-1 ATS)
The Saints are already in the playoffs and are a 3-point road favorite facing the Tennessee Titans that are still in the playoff race but are a longshot. The total of this non-conference matchup sits at 50.5.
The public has backed the Saints in this game, as they opened as a 1-point favorite and as of Wednesday are a 3-point favorite.
The Saints have won four of their last five games and while tied with three other teams at 11-3 they are the current 3rd seed in the NFC. They are coming off a 34-7 home blowout win over the Indianapolis Colts where Drew Brees broke the record for TD passes.
The Titans suffered a 24-21 home loss to the Houston Texans in their last game. They are one game back of Houston in the AFC South and face them in the Lone Star State next week in the season finale.
They are also tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers at 8-6 but the Steelers have the inside track for the playoffs holding the tiebreaker with a better AFC record.
These teams have not met since the 2015 season.
On the season the Titans are 4-3 at home and the Saints are 5-1 on the road.
Dominating the Colts
In their blowout win over the Colts in their last game, the Saints outgained them 424 yards to 205 yards, held them to 46 rushing yards, and shut Indy out for the first three quarters.
Brees broke the record in the Colts game where he passed for 407 yards with four TD and was not picked off.
Big shock Michael Thomas, who leads the league in receiving yards, led New Orleans with 128 yards. Brees has nine TD and no INT in his last five games and it has helped to get great protection from the offensive line that has not allowed a sack in the last three games.
Alvin Kamara has not had a big season like last one but in the last game, he rushed for 66 yards and had five catches for 23 yards.
Tennessee gave up 374 yards in their loss to the Texans and overall on the season they rank 25th in the league defending the pass and 13th defending the run.
Stats Don’t Tell Story
In the Titans 24-21 loss to the Texans, they outgained Houston (432 yards to 374 yards) and had fewer turnovers (2-1) but still lost. After coming back from a 14-point first-quarter deficit they allowed the Texans to take a 10-point 4th quarter lead, which they could not come back from.
Ryan Tannehill passed for 279 yards with two TD and one INT and A.J. Brown went for 114 receiving yards.
One of the main reasons the Titans lost is they did not get a big game from Derrick Henry. The RB ranks 2ndin the NFL in rushing yards and after four games of over 100 yards, he rushed for 86 yards with an average of 4.1 yards per carry.
On the season he has averaged 4.9 yards per carry and in the four games before the loss to Houston, he had averaged 149.6 yards per game.
Henry will be facing a New Orleans run defense that ranks 4th in the league while their pass D ranks 17th.
The Saints are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a road favorite and 25-8 ATS in their last 33 road games.
The Titans have failed to cover the spread in five of their last seven games facing a team with a winning record.
The Saints still are playing for a top 2 seed in the NFC and a first-round bye. They will improve those chances with a win in this game where they will move the chains and keep Henry in check. New Orleans will win and cover in this game and that may kill the playoff hopes for the Titans.
PICK: Saints -3