Indianapolis Colts
vs.
Houston Texans
AFC Wildcard
Pick – Trends
1/5/19
By: Jason Green
**Note – All playoff picks will iNClude both Jasons pick as well as Bettorsworld’s Pick.
Indianapolis Colts (10-6 SU 8-7-1 ATS) vs. Houston Texans (11-5 SU 7-8-1 ATS)
In the Saturday AFC Wild Card Game the AFC West champion Houston Texans play host to the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts took the last matchup between these teams this season, which was in Houston, and the Texans are the slight home betting favorite. Indianapolis won nine of their last 10 Games on the season and they have won Four straight.
The Colts beat the Tennessee Titans in the season finale to nab the 6th seed in the AFC and it is hard to believe the team made the playoffs after a 1-5 start. Andrew LUck has put up MVP numbers this season and leads an offense that ranks 5th in the league in ppg.
The Texans wrapped up the AFC South with a 20-3 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in their last Game. They won two of their last three Games of the regular season and they are a balanced team ranking 15th in the league in overall offense and 12th in overall defense. Deshaun Watson had a solid sophomore campaign, but he was sacked 65 times, which was the 5th most sacks ever in a season. However, he has some weapons on the outside and the team can run the ball.
At 5Dimes sportsbook the Texans are a 2 point home favorite with a total of 47.5.
This season the Colts are 8-7-1 ATS with an O/U record of 8-8 and the Texans are 7-8-1 ATS with an O/U record of 7-9.
This season these teams split the two Games facing each other with each winning on the road.
The Colts are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six Games against the Texans in Houston.
In their last Game of the season the Colts were on the road and beat the Tennessee Titans 33-33-17. They outGAined the Titans 436 yards to 258 yards, rushed for 158 yards, and while they committed two turnovers they forced three of them.
LUck passed for 285 yards with three TD and one INT in the win over the Titans and three players had at least 60 receiving yards. Marlon MACk rushed for 119 yards and in the win over Houston on December 9th he only rushed for 33 yards and the Colts still got the W. The main reason was LUck, who passed for 399 yards with two TD and one pick.
MACk is key in the backfield in this Game, but LUck is the player the Houston D cannot allow to have a huge Game. However, the Texans only have a pass defense that ranks 28th in the league while their run D is legit ranking 3rd in the league.
The Texans totally dominated the Jaguars in beating them in their last Game 20-3 where they outGAined them 342 yards to 119 yards. Watson passed for 234 yards with no TD and no INT and was sacked six times. Watson also led the Texans with 66 rushing yards and LAmar Miller chimed in for 56 rushing yards and a TD, but only averaged 3.3 yards per carry. Watson passed for 267 yards with a TD and no INT in the Game a few weeks back against Indy and Miller struggled with only Miller only rushed for 33 yards averaging a paltry 2.4 yards per carry.
The Colts rank 16th in the league defending the pass and 8th defending the run.
Colts ATS Trends
6-0 ATS in their last 6 Games facing a team with a winning record
3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 Games facing teams from the AFC South
Under record of 5-2 in their last 7 Games
Texans ATS Trends
4-1 ATS in their last 5 home Games
1-5 ATS in their last 6 Games facing a team with a winning record
Over record of 8-3 in their last 11 Games facing a team with a winning record
Jason’s Pick: While the Colts are the 6th seed in the AFC and they are on the road they are still the pick in this Wild Card Game. They are the hottest team in the league, they have covered in their last six Games against a team with a winning record, and they beat the Texans on the road in December. Houston will not be able to contain LUck and Indy will not only cover the spread in this Wild Card Game, but get the win as well.
Bettorsworld Pick – We are going to agree with Jason in this spot. When we run this Game through Our model using full season stats we have the Texans winning by 4. However when we use only the last 7 Games we get the Colts on top by 1. If we narrow it down to only the last 4 Games, the margin iNCreases to Colts by a TD.
What we are seeing with the model is what we all witnessed in person. A Colts team that stumbled out of the GAte 1-5 and then went on a 9-1 run to ultimately end up in this Game.
But history also shows us that generally, to make a run in the playoffs, you need a big time QB. Is Deshaun Watson a big time QB? Well, we just don’t know yet. He’s never played in a playoff Game.
But we do know Andrew LUck has been here before and has taken a team all the way to the AFC Championship. So based in experieNCe, if we had to pick a QB in this spot, we’re going to pick LUck over Watson.
This should be an entertaining Game. When these two meet, it’s pretty much always a close Game that goes down to the wire.
LUck has his work cut out for him as this Texans defense was one of the best in the league this year when playing at home. We just think LUck finds a way here. Colts +2