Chicago Bears vs. Philadelphia Eagles – Week 9 NFL Betting Analysis
Chicago Bears (3-4 2-5 ATS) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-4 3-5 ATS)
The Bears have lost three in a row and travel to the City of Brotherly Love where they are a 5-point underdog facing the Philadelphia Eagles. The total of this NFC matchup sits at 44.
The Eagles snapped their two-game losing streak with an impressive 31-13 win over the Buffalo Bills in their last game.
The public has backed the Eagles, not surprising, as they opened as a 3-point underdog and as of Thursday are a 5-point dog.
Chicago is now under .500 for the season and that is not good being in the NFC North where the Packers lead the division at 7-1 and the Vikings are 5-2. They had a chance to win in their last game but missed a 41-yard field goal as time expired in a 17-16 loss to the L.A. Chargers.
The Eagles have covered the spread in their last four games against the Bears.
Defense Cannot Do It All
In their 17-16 loss to the Chargers in their last game the Bears had 388 yards and held L.A. to only 231 yards but still took the loss. Chicago had two turnovers in the game and while Mitchell Trubisky passed for 253 yards with no TD and one INT he led the team on the late drive with some key throws but the field goal was pushed left.
Trubisky has not played very well on the season and he not only has the league’s 29th QB rating, but also only leads a Chicago passing offense that ranks 29th.
Chicago’s rushing offense has also been less than stellar on the season only ranking 26th. However, if there is one silver lining for the loss to the Chargers it is that rookie RB David Montgomery had his best game of the season rushing for 135 yards averaging a solid five yards per carry. He is still only averaging 3.7 yards per carry and will face the strength of the Eagles’ defense, which is their run defense that ranks 8th while their pass D only ranks 21st.
Stopping the Bleeding
The Eagles had lost two in a row before their win over Buffalo where they only allowed 253 total yards.
Carson Wentz passed for 172 yards with a TD and no INT in the won over the Bills and while he has not passed for over 200 yards in four of his last five games, including his last two he ranks 6th in the league in QBR.
The ground game got it going in the win over the Bills, as Philly rushed for 172 yards and Jordan Howard led the team with 98 rushing yards, which was a season high.
Chicago has a balanced defense that ranks 10th in the league against the pass and 6th against the rush. Their defense is, obviously, key in this game, as their offense is struggling and will not put up many points.
The Bears are the underdog in this NFC matchup and the underdog has covered the spread in 10 of the last 14 games between these teams.
While the Bears are only 2-6 ATS in their last eight games the Eagles are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.
The Bears will play pretty good D, but they will not totally bottle up Wentz. I see him having a good game and it is not surprising the Chicago offense will struggle to put up points. Philadelphia will not blow out Chicago but win handily and cover the spread.
PICK: Eagles -5