Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – Week 9 NFL Betting Analysis
Houston Texans (5-3 4-4 ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-4 5-3 ATS)
The Jags have won two in a row and in this AFC West game in London, England they are a 1.5-point underdog with a total sitting at 46.
Jacksonville has won two straight but they have faced the Cincinnati Bengals and New York Jets, who have combined for one win.
The public has backed the Jaguars in this AFC South matchup, as they opened as a 3-point underdog and as of Thursday are a 1.5-point underdog.
The Texans have won three of their last four games and while they won their last one, beating the Oakland Raiders 27-24, the win was costly as star JJ Watt was injured and is out for the season.
In their last game the Jags beat the New York Jets 29-15 and they have not allowed more than 17 points in their last two games. They faced the Texans in the Lone Star State in the 2nd game of the season and lost 13-12.
The underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 games between these division rivals.
Coming Up Big Late
In their 27-24 win over the Oakland Raiders in their last game the Texans outscored the Raiders 14-3 in the 4th quarter.
Deshawn Watson passed for 279 yards with 3 TD and no Int in the win over Oakland and in each of his previous two games he had one TD and 2 INT. DeAndre Hopkins led the team with 109 yards in the Raiders game and he has over 100 receiving yards in each of his last two games. He is listed as questionable for this game with a thumb injury but should still get the start.
The Texans rushed for 130 yards in the Oakland win with Carlos Hyde rushing for 83 yards averaging 4.4 yards per carry and Watson rushed for 46 yards averaging 4.6 yards per carry.
The Jags rank in the middle of the pack this season in both pass defense (14th) and run defense (17th).
Defense Does the Trick
In the Jags 29-15 win over the Jets in their last game they held New York to only 213 total yards, held them to 46 rushing yards, and they forced three turnovers.
Rookie Gardner Minshaw II has passed for 13 TD and only 2 INT on the season and in the Jets’ game passed for 279 yards with 3 TD and no INT.
Chris Conley led Jax with 103 receiving yards in the New York game and three players had at least 60 receiving yards. One of those players was RB Leonard Fournette, who also rushed for 78 yards averaging four yards per carry. Fournette ranks 2nd in the league in rushing yards but in the Week 2 loss to the Texans on the road he only rushed for 47 yards averaging a paltry 3.1 yards per carry.
While Houston ranks a stout 5th in the league defending the run they only rank 28th defending the pass.
Our Prediction
The total for the first game this season between these teams went Under and that has been the winning bet in four of the last five games between these teams.
The Jags got a little hosed by the schedule with this game being in London where they are the “home” team and do not get the face the Texans in their house.
Houston will miss Watt, but they still have Watson, a solid WR corps, and a good run game. Watson will have a good game and his play will be key in a lower scoring affair. The Jags will play the Texans close, just like the Week 2 game, but Houston will get the win and also cover the short spread.
PICK: Texans -1.5