New Orleans Saints vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – Week 6 NFL Betting Analysis
New Orleans Saints (4-1 3-2 ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3 3-2 ATS)
The Saints have reeled off three straight wins and they head to the Sunshine State as a 1-point road underdog facing the Jaguars with a total at 44.5.
The public has been slightly taking the hometown Jags in this game, as they opened as a 1.5-point underdog and are a one-point dog as of Tuesday.
The last time these teams met it was the 2015 season.
The Saints won their 3rd in a row in their last game, all without Drew Brees, in a 31-24 home win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Jags had won two in a row before their last game where turnovers killed them in a 34-27 loss to the Carolina Panthers.
The Saints have covered the spread in their last four games facing the Jags.
Bridgewater Comes Up Big
In the 31-24 win over the Bucs in their last game Saints’ backup QB Teddy Bridgewater had his best game of the season passing for 314 yards with four TD and one INT.
The Saints had more than 200 total yards in the win over Tampa Bay and they were 8/15 on 3rd downs in a game that, on paper, should not have been as close as it was.
New Orleans star WR Michael Thomas was huge in the Tampa win with 182 receiving yards and Alvin Kamara rushed for 62 yards averaging 3.9 yards per carry and had six catches for 42 receiving yards.
The Jaguars’ defense, which ranks 18th in the league against the pass and 25th against the run, gave up 31 points in winning two straight before giving up 34 points in their last game.
The Turnover Stat is Always a Key One
In the Jags 34-27 loss to the Panthers in their last game they racked up over 500 total yards, with Carolina having 445 yards, but they had three turnovers while not forcing any and they gave up 285 rushing yards.
Gardner Minshew passed for 374 yards with a couple of TD’s and was not picked off but lost three fumbles. D.J. Clark Jr. had 164 receiving yards and Leonard Fournette rushed for 108 yards averaging 4.7 yards per carry.
Fournette ranks 3rd in the league in rushing yards with 512 of them and 333 of them have come in the last two games.
The Saints rank near the middle of the pack in the league in both run defense and pass defense and containing Fournette will be key for them in this non-conference affair.
Our Prediction
While the Saints are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games they have failed to cover in five of their last seven games overall.
In an interesting betting trend, the Jags have failed to cover in their last five games in October including failing to cover last week.
The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six games between these teams and look for that trend to continue. The Saints are hot, and Bridgewater is coming off his best game of the season. The Saint will give up the rushing yards but play well in every other facet and New Orleans will get the W and cover.
PICK: Saints +1