New York Jets vs. Baltimore Ravens – Week 15 NFL Betting Analysis
New York Jets (5-8 5-8 ATS) at Baltimore Ravens (11-2 7-6 ATS)
The Baltimore Ravens have won nine straight games and they are huge 15-point favorites this Thursday night hosting the 5-8 New York Jets. The total for this AFC matchup sits at 44.5.
Baltimore is in a great spot with the New England Patriots loss last week, as the Ravens now have a one-game lead over them for the #1 seed in the AFC and they hold the tiebreaker as well since they beat the Pats.
The Jets have played a far from tough schedule, as of late, but they still have won three of their last four games. They have the league’s 2nd ranked run defense and that will be vital in this game facing Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, who have the top-ranked rushing offense in the NFL.
The Ravens have covered the spread in four of their last five games against the Jets.
Jackson is still the front-runner for the MVP, but he is nursing a quad injury and may not be 100% this Thursday. He is listed as questionable for the game, but it would be a surprise if he could not go.
While Baltimore is 5-1 at home on the season New York is only 1-5 on the road.
In their last game, the Jets beat the Miami Dolphins 22-21 nailing a field goal as time expired to get the W. They had solid balance on the offensive side of the ball and regrouped with a win after a bad loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in their previous game.
Sam Darnold ranks 27th in the NFL in QBR but has played well in the last few weeks and has nine TD and two INT in his last five games. In the win over Miami, he passed for 270 yards with two TD and one INT.
Le’Veon Bell missed the Dolphins game with an illness, and he is expected to be in the backfield against the Ravens. He has not had a great first season with the Jets with 589 rushing yards and has only averaged 3.2 yards per carry. If he cannot go Bilal Powell will get the carries and in the Miami game, he rushed for 74 yards averaging 3.9 yards per carry.
Not only does Baltimore have the highest-scoring team in the league but they rank 6th in the league defending the run and 9th defending the pass.
The Defense is the Main Star
In their last game, the Raven beat the Buffalo Bills 24-17 where Jackson did not have a big game, for a change, and the Baltimore D came up big holding Buffalo to only 209 total yards.
Jackson passed for 145 yards and rushed for 40 yards and Mark Ingram rushed for 59 yards. Ingram has taken a bit of a backseat to Jackson in the backfield failing to rush for over 59 yards in the last two games. However, if Jackson is hobbled by his quad injury expect Ingram to get a lot of touches.
If Jackson cannot go or is taken out early Robert Griffin III will see action under center.
While the Jets have one of the best run defenses in the league they only rank in the middle of the pack in terms of pass defense.
The Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games facing the Jets and 4-1 ATS in their last four games facing them at home.
Not only are the Jets 1-5 on the road this season but 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
I am leaning towards the Jets in this one, as they are getting 15 points and I see Baltimore being very careful with Jackson. The Ravens will get the win, but they will not light up the scoreboard winning with Ingram on the ground and a solid defensive effort. Because of that, the Jets will cover the spread getting 15 points.
PICK: Jets +15