Patriots Look to Move to 8-0 Hosting Browns – Free NFL Pick – 10/27/19

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Cleveland Browns vs. New England Patriots – Week 8 NFL Betting Analysis

Cleveland Browns (2-4 2-4 ATS) at New England Patriots (7-0 5-2 ATS)

The Browns are coming off a bye week and have lost two in a row and no shock are big 13-point underdogs on the road against the undefeated Patriots. The total for this game sits at 45.5.

The public has really backed the Patriots, big surprise, in this AFC matchup, as they opened as a 10.5-point favorite and as of Thursday are a 13-point favorite.

The Browns had their chances in their last game, which was a 32-28 loss to the Seattle Seahawks, but turnovers killed their chances. They had four of them with Baker Mayfield throwing 3 INT.

Mayfield has been up and down on the season and while the offense has been pretty good, for the most part, the defense only ranks 23rd in the league.

The Patriots are lone undefeated team in the AFC and while they have not played any dynamic offensive teams they rank first in the league in overall defense. The team made a big move during the week trading a 2nd round pick to the Atlanta Falcons for solid WR Mohamed Sanu, who has 313 receiving yards this season and fills a big need for New England.

These teams have not met since the 2016 season.

The Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games facing the Browns and 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games facing them at home.

Mayfield has to Avoid the INT

Mayfield has passed for nearly 1,500 yards this season, but he only has 5 TD to go along with a league leading 11 INT. He has been picked off five times in his last two games and facing a Pats’ defense that features Devin McCourty, who leads the league in INT with 5, Mayfield has to avoid getting picked off in this game.

While Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. each have at least 436 receiving yards they have only combined for one TD.

Nick Chubb has the 4th most rushing yards in the league and is averaging a solid 5.3 yards per carry. He rushed for 122 yards in the loss to Seattle with 2 TD and in his last three games he has rushed for 374 yards.

New England’s defense has been dominant on the season, but this may be their first test, as the Browns can move the ball.

The Rich Get Richer

The addition of Sanu was a great one for the Patriots, as he is a great veteran receiver with no off-the-field issues. He gives Brady another weapon and the team is moving on from Josh Gordon, who will likely be released soon.

In the Patriots last game, they dominated both sides of the ball in a 33-0 win over the New York Jets. Brady passed for 249 yards with a TD and an INT and five different players had at least 39 receiving yards.

The Pats did not run the ball well against the Jets with 74 rushing yards and Sony Michel led the way with 42 yards and while he had 3 TD, he only averaged 2.2 yards per carry. He had rushed for at least 86 yards in his previous two games.

Myles Garrett, who is tied for the league lead with 9 sacks, leads a Cleveland defense that ranks a solid 6thagainst the pass but only 30th against the run.

Our Prediction

The Browns have covered the spread in four of their last five road games.

The Patriots are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games facing a team with a winning record.

The Pats will win this game, but they will not do so in a blowout. This is their first game facing a team with a good offense and the Browns will put up some points. Cleveland will not get the win in New England, but they will cover getting 13 points.

PICK: Browns +13