Cardinals at Saints Free NFL Pick Against the Spread – 10/27/19

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Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints – Week 8 NFL Betting Analysis

Arizona Cardinals (3-3-1 5-2 ATS) at New Orleans Saints (6-1 5-2 ATS)

The suddenly hot Cardinals head to the Big East this Sunday as a 10.5-point underdog facing the red-hot New Orleans Saints, who have won five in a row. The total for this NFC matchup is at 48.5.

Even though the Cardinals have won three straight the public has really backed the Saints, as they opened as a 7.5-point favorite and as of Thursday are a 10.5-point favorite.

While in the Cardinals three-game win streak their opponents only have a total of three wins in the Saints five-game win streak they have beaten the Seahawks, Cowboys, and Bears.

These teams have not faced off since the 2016 season.

Both of these teams have gotten solid QB play lately with Kyler Murray living up to his top-pick billing and the Saints have not lost since Teddy Bridgewater took over for the injured Drew Brees.

Brees may play in this game and practiced this week and he will be a game-time decision.

The Saints have some big injury concerns heading into this game, as Brees, RB Alvin Kamara, TE Jared Cook, CB Eli Apple, and CB Patrick Robinson are all questionable.

Something has got to give in this game, as the Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games and the Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.

The Saints have covered the spread in their last four games facing the Cardinals.

Murry Has Been Good

After an up-and-down start to the season Kyler Murray has been solid in the last few games. He has not thrown a pick in his last three games and in two he did throw a TD but he has really limited his mistakes, which he had plenty of early in the season.

In the Cardinals last game, they beat the New York Giants 27-21 where they were outgained 263 yards to 245 yards but forced three turnovers and did not commit one.

Murray only passed for 104 yards in the win over the Giants but was 14/21 with no TD and no INT. He did not have to air it out often, as Chase Edmonds rushed for a career high 126 yards and 3 TD averaging 3.7 yards per carry.

David Johnson leads Arizona with 300 rushing yards, Edmonds has 287 averaging 5.6 yards per carry, and also ranks 2nd on the team behind Larry Fitzgerald in receiving yards.

The Saints have given up at least 24 points in two of their last three games and on the season rank 9th in the league against the run and 14th against the pass.

The Bridge Has Stood Up

Teddy Bridgewater has played well in Brees’ absence and in the Saints last game, which was a 36-25 win over the Chicago Bears, he passed for 281 yards with 2 TD and was not picked off.

WR Michael Thomas leads the league in receiving yards by over 100 yards and in his last three games has averaged 134 receiving yards.

Kamara leads the Saints in rushing yards and ranks 2nd in receiving yards and if he cannot go in this game Latavius Murray (257 yards 3 TD 4.4 yards per carry) will get the start. Kamara has failed to average over four yards per carry in his last two games and in the win over the Bears he only rushed for 31 yards averaging 2.8 yards per carry.

Arizona has balance on defense but not good balance ranking 25th in the league defending the pass and the run.

Our Prediction

The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these teams.

Ok, so the Cardinals have not played good teams in their three-game win streak, but any win is good for the team that had the fewest wins in the league last season. Murray has played well, and he will play well in this game. I think Bridgewater will get the start, we shall see, and while the Saints will get the win at home the Cardinals will give them a fight and cover the double-digit spread.

PICK: Cardinals +10.5