New England Patriots vs. New York Jets – Week 7 NFL Betting Analysis
New England Patriots (6-0 4-2 ATS) at New York Jets (1-4 2-3 ATS)
The Patriots are along with the San Francisco 49ers as the lone undefeated teams in the league and on Monday night they hit the road to face an old AFC East foe in the Jets, who are coming off their first win of the season.
To say the public has backed the Pats would be an understatement, as they opened as 4.5-point favorite and as of Thursday are a 9.5-point favorite.
In Week 3 at home the Pats easily beat the Jets 30-14 holding New York to 105 total yards. However, that was with Sam Darnold out with mono and in his return in the Jets’ last game he was great lighting the Dallas Cowboys’ secondary in a 24-22 win.
The Patriots have won their last six games facing the Jets but have failed to cover in five of their last six road games against them.
New England is a solid 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 Monday night games.
Defense has Been Awesome
While the Pats’ offense has been up and down on the season their defense has been great leading the league in that category and are holding opponents to an average of 8 ppg.
Brady has been pretty good but not great on the season and in the Patriots last game, which was a 35-14 win over the New York Giants, he passed for 331 yards without a TD and was picked off once.
Super Bowl MVP Julian Edelman led New England in the win over the Giants with 125 receiving yards and Sony Michel rushed for 86 yards.
The Pats are dealing with several key injuries, especially to the offensive line and star kicker Stephen Gostkowski, and DE Michael Bennett (2.5 sacks) has been suspended by New England for this game.
New England’s D has been great on the season, but their opponents’ offenses have not been. They Three of the four worst ranked offenses have been Pats’ opponents this season.
Darnold to the Rescue
The Jets rank dead last in the league on offense and they were terrible with Darnold out. However, he led the team to the win over Dallas passing for 338 yards with 2 TD and one INT. Robbie Anderson had 125 receiving yards, including a 92 yard touchdown reception, and Jamison Crowder had 98 receiving yards and Darnold was only sacked twice.
Le’Veon Bell has failed to regain his old magic in his first one in a Jets’ uniform only rushing for 256 yards on the season where he is only averaging three yards per carry. In the Week 3 loss to the Pats Bell was held to 35 rushing yards averaging a paltry 1.8 yards per carry.
The New York defense gave up 399 total yards in their win over the Cowboys and on the season, they rank 21st in the league defending the pass and 13th defending the run.
Not only have the Pats covered in four of their last five road games but they are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games against a team with a losing record.
The Jets are only 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight home games and 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
The Jets got their first win of the season in their last game and Darnold was great. He will play well in this game and the New York defense will as well coming after Brady big-time. However, they will not hand the Patriots their first loss of the season but will give New England a scare covering the spread in what will be a close Monday night AFC East showdown.
PICK: Jets +9.5