L.A. Chargers vs. Tennessee Titans – Week 7 NFL Betting Analysis
L.A. Chargers (2-4 1-4-1 ATS) at Tennessee Titans (2-4 2-4 ATS)
The disappointing Chargers look to turn season around on the road facing the Titans in an AFC matchup where Tennessee is a 2-point favorite with a total of 39.5.
The public has backed the home Titans in this game, as they opened as a slight 1-point favorite and as of Thursday are a 2-point favorite.
The Chargers have been a big disappointment this season for a team that may though would be a legit contender. That has not been the case for the team that has lost two in a row where they only totaled 30 points.
The Titans head into this game with a new QB, as Ryan Tannehill has been named the starter after Marcus Mariota has not gotten it done on the field. Not shocking that the former Dolphins’ starter has gotten the call for a Tennessee team that has lost two in a row where they only scored a grand total of seven points.
These teams met last season in the City of Angels where the Chargers pulled out a 20-19 win.
The Chargers are not only 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games facing the Titans but also 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games against them in Tennessee.
Rivers Needs to Step Up
The Chargers are led by veteran QB Phillip Rivers and while he leads the Chargers and their 4th ranked passing offense but he has been picked off twice in each of his last two games. In L.A.’s last game, which was a 24-17 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers he passed for 320 yards with a couple of scores, but the picks hurt and he had a fumble that was returned for a TD.
Melvin Gordon is back in the fold after a holdout and while he led the team in rushing yards in the loss to the Steelers, he only rushed for a grand total of 18 yards on eight carries.
Gordon has stated that the solution to his slow start is getting more touches and he may get his wish facing the weakness of the Tennessee defense, which is their run D that ranks 15th in the league.
The Bolts has been led by Rivers for over a decade and he has the WR corps but needs to cut down on the turnovers.
Tannehill Inherits Unenviable Situation
Ryan Tannehill will make his first start for the Titans and they have given up the most sacks in the league. They do not have a great WR corps and the run game only ranks 20th in the league.
When Tannehill took over for Mariota in the 16-0 loss to the Denver Broncos in the last game, he was 13/16 for 133 yards with no TD and an INT.
The Titans only rushed for 39 yards in the loss to the Broncos and Derrick Henry led the team with only 28 yards averaging 1.9 yards per carry. He does have 419 rushing yards on the season but has been up and down and in his last four games has averaged just over three yards per carry.
Tennessee simply does not have many weapons on offense and Henry is the key, as his two highest rushing games on the season are the team’s only wins.
Look for Henry to get a big-time workload in this game, as the Chargers’ defense is one of the best in the league against the pass but only ranks 22nd against the run.
Our Prediction
While the Chargers have covered in eight of their last 10 road games, they are only 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
The Titans have failed to cover in four of their last five games and they have not covered the spread in their last four home games.
Tannehill will breath some life into the Tennessee offense but that is not hard to do for a team that has scored seven points in their last two games. Gordon will have a breakout game and Rivers will play well, and the Chargers will not only cover the short spread but get the win as well.
PICK: Chargers +2