Oakland Raiders vs. Green Bay Packers – Week 7 NFL Betting Analysis
Oakland Raiders (3-2 3-2 ATS) at Green Bay Packers (5-1 4-2 ATS)
The surprising 3-2 Raiders have won two in a row and they head to Lambeau Field this Sunday to take on the Packers, who are 5-1 and have also won two in a row. The Packers are a 5.5-point home favorite in this non-conference matchup with a total of 47.
A little bit of a shock that the public has backed the Raiders in this game, as they opened as a 7-point underdog and as of Thursday are a 5.5-point underdog.
The Raiders are coming off a bye week and in their last game they beat the Chicago Bears 24-21.
The Packers won on Monday night beating the Detroit Lions 23-22 on a last second field goal. They were a little lucky in the game with some very questionable calls from the officials that helped their cause, big time.
These teams have not faced off since the 2015 season and the Packers have covered in the last four meetings.
The Run Game has been Key
One of the reasons the Raiders are winning is that they have a rejuvenated run game behind rookie Josh Jacobs. Oakland ranks 8th in the league in rushing yards per game and Jacobs is averaging 4.9 yards per carry and in the win over the Bears in the last game he went off for 123 yards.
Derek Carr has not put up big numbers but has been a solid game-manager and he has not had an INT in his last two games. In the Chicago win he passed for 229 yards with no TD and no INT and was not sacked.
The Oakland offensive line has only given up one sack in the last two games after giving up seven in their previous two games.
Look for a heavy dose of Jacobs in this game, as Oakland wants to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field. On top of that Jacobs will be facing the weakness of the Green Bay defense, which is their run D that only ranks 23rd in the league. However, the Packers did only allow 56 rushing yards in their last game.
Rodgers Shorthanded but still Comes Through
In the 23-22 win over the Lions the Packers were missing some key targets but Aaron Rodgers still had a solid game passing for 283 yards with 2 TD and one INT and led Green Bay on the game-winning drive.
For this game the injuries may be a key issue, as WR’s Geronimo Allison, Davante Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and TE Jimmy Graham are all listed as questionable for this game.
Rodgers got a lot of help from the run game in the win over the Lions and Jamaal Williams had, by far, his best game of the season rushing for 104 yards. Aaron Jones chipped in for 47 rushing yards after rushing for 107 yards in the previous game.
Oakland ranks a respectable 10th in the league in run defense but only 22nd in pass defense and that is obviously a concern facing Rodgers in his house.
The Raiders had failed to cover in four-straight road games before doing so in their last game on the road.
Green Bay has covered the spread in five of their last seven games facing a team with a winning record.
The Raiders have been a surprise and are coming off a bye, but they will not surprise the Packers. Even with a banged up WR corps the Packers have Rodgers and a legit run game, for a change, and they will win and cover the spread at Lambeau.
PICK: Packers -5.5