L.A. Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers – Week 16 NFL Betting Analysis
L.A. Rams (8-6 9-5 ATS) at San Francisco 49ers (11-3 8-5-1 ATS)
The L.A. Rams head north to take on NFC West rivals San Francisco 49ers, who are a 6.5-point home favorite with a total sitting at 45.
While the total has lowered slightly since opening the public have been even on betting on these teams with the spread not changing as of Wednesday.
The Rams were beaten badly in their last game 44-21 by the Dallas Cowboys and the reigning NFC champions are in a bad place. To make the post-season they will need to win their final two games and the Minnesota Vikings have to lose their last two games.
The 49ers are coming off a pretty surprising 29-22 home loss to the Atlanta Falcons in their last game. Last week they did clinch a playoff berth but slipped from the top seed in the NFC to the 5th seed. There are four teams in the NFC all at 11-3 and the last two games are HUGE for all of them.
Earlier in this season in L.A. the 49ers flexed their defensive muscle in the 20-7 win over the Rams.
The 49ers have covered the spread in six of their last eight games facing the Rams.
Bad Rushing Defense, Bad Rushing Offense
In the Rams 44-21 loss to the Cowboys in the Big D in their last game, their run defense was lit up to the tune of allowing 263 rushing yards while they only rushed for 22 yards.
The loss snapped the Rams’ two-game win streak and they were outgained 475 yards to 279 yards. Todd Gurley was a no show rushing for 20 yards and Jared Goff passed for 284 yards with two TD and a pick. He passed for a season-low 78 yards in the first matchup with the 49ers and has an injured thumb but is more than likely to start in this game.
The 49ers have given up 75 points in their last two games but still have the NFL’s 2nd ranked defense.
Bad 4th Quarter
In the 49ers’ loss to the Falcons last week they had more overall yards and more rushing yards but lost two fumbled and surrendered 19 points in the 4th quarter.
Jimmy Garoppolo was 22/34 for 200 yards with a TD and an INT in the loss to the Falcons and George Kittle led the team with 134 receiving yards.
Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman combined for 94 rushing yards in the Atlanta game while Matt Breida only rushed for 11 yards. Mostert is now the team leader in rushing yards for San Fran and I think they will really lean on the run in this game since the Rams gave up a ton of rushing yards in the loss to Dallas.
The Rams rank a legit 9th in the league in pass defense but only 23rd in run defense.
The 49ers have covered in five of their last six games going against a team with a winning record and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against the Rams.
The 49ers will pound the rock on the ground and their defense will step it up after two not so great games. I do not see Goff lighting it up after he had his worst game of the season earlier at home against San Francisco. The 49ers will lean on the run game and their defense in this NFC West matchup, which they will win and cover the spread.
PICK: 49ers -6.5