Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills – Week 14 NFL Betting Analysis
Baltimore Ravens (10-2 6-6 ATS) at Buffalo Bills (9-3 8-3-1 ATS)
There is a new #1 seed in the AFC, as the Ravens now have the top spot after their big win last week and the New England Patriots loss. Baltimore heads north to take on the Buffalo Bills as a 6-point road favorite with a total at 43.5.
As of Tuesday, the spread has remained the same since opening while the total has gone from 43 to 43.5.
The Ravens won their 8th game in a row in their last game beating the San Francisco 49-ers 20-17 with Justin Tucker nailing a game-winning field goal as time expired. Lamar Jackson is the front-runner for the MVP and with good reason. He has nearly 1,000 rushing yards and has not thrown an INT since the first game of the current eight-game win streak.
Don’t sleep on the Buffalo Bills, who have won three straight and beat the Dallas Cowboys 26-15 in their house on Thanksgiving.
Buffalo ranks 5th in the league in rushing yards per game, the Ravens rank 1st, and they are only giving up an average of 15.7 ppg. They sit in 2nd place in the AFC East one game back of the New England Patriots, who they face in their 2nd to last game of the season.
The Bills may have some payback in mind, as they lost to the Ravens on the road last season 47-3.
The home team has covered the spread in seven of the last eight games between these teams.
Jackson Runs with It
Jackson did not have the best passing game in the Ravens 20-17 win over the 49ers but he rushed for 101 yards with a TD and Mark Ingram rushed for 59 yards. He has spread the wealth around with his passing game and his run game has been ridiculous ranking 9th in the league in rushing yards and Ingram ranks 12th.
When the Ravens met the Bills last season it was in Week 1 facing Joe Flacco and this is their first look at Jackson.
The Ravens rank first in the NFL in ppg and rushing yards per game and Buffalo has a tall task. They rank 3rd in the league in pass defense and 14th in run defense.
The run defense will obviously be key for the Bills and in their three-game win streak they have only allowed an average of 77.6 rushing yards per game. In their last loss to the Cleveland Browns, they gave up 147 rushing yards.
Is it the Schedule?
Even with their big win over Dallas on turkey day many still doubt the Bills because of a weak schedule. They did play the Patriots close in a loss and their two biggest wins have come against the Tennessee Titans and Cowboys, who are 7-5 and 6-6 respectively.
Josh Allen has been solid under center for Buffalo this season despite a QBR that is 23rd in the league. He passed for 231 yards with a TD and no INT in the win over Dallas and while no Lamar Jackson he has rushed for at least 43 yards in each of his last three games.
The offensive line has been very solid for Buffalo this season and while they gave up four sacks in the Dallas win they only gave up four total in the previous four games. Devin Singletary and the ageless Frank Gore have combined for 1,110 rushing yards this season and Singletary is averaging 5.6 yards per carry.
The Ravens did give up 174 rushing yards in the win over the 49ers and that has to be a concern. This season Baltimore ranks 13th in the league in pass defense and 6th in run defense.
Something has got to give in this game, as both have been solid betting ones in the last few weeks. The Bills are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games and the Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
Jackson will be too much for the Bills to handle and while they will not get embarrassed at home the Ravens will get the W and cover the spread.
PICK: Ravens -6