Tennessee Titans vs. Oakland Raiders – Week 14 NFL Betting Analysis
Tennessee Titans (7-5 6-5-1 ATS) at Oakland Raiders (6-6 6-6 ATS)
The hot Tennessee Titans are a 3-point road favorite facing an Oakland Raiders team that is .500 and have been blown out in each of their last two games. The total for this AFC matchup is set at 47.
While the total has slightly gone up from 46.5 to 47 the spread has remained the same, as of Tuesday, since opening.
Tennessee is tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers for the last AFC Wild Card, but Pittsburgh holds the tiebreaker. They can still win the AFC South, as they are only one game behind the Houston Texans and they still face them twice in their last three games of the season.
The Titans have won three in a row where they have averaged 36 ppg.
Oakland is sitting at 6-6 and in desperation mode. They need a win in this game and a very strong finish to make the playoffs.
The Raiders only gave up 259 yards in their last game but lost 40-9 against the Kansas City Chiefs. Mistakes killed them in that game, as they gave up a pick-6 as well as a special teams’ TD.
One thing the Raiders have going for them in this game is that they are at home. Oakland is 5-1 at home with their only blemish in their house in Week 2 against the Chiefs. This is their first game facing the Titans since the 2017 season and they have covered in six of their last eight games facing them.
Henry Has Been a Beast
One of the main reasons for the Titans hot-streak has been the play of RB Derrick Henry. In Tennessee’s last game they were on the road and beat the Indianapolis Colts 31-17. Henry had 149 rushing yards on a per carry average of 5.7 yards and in his previous two games rushed for 159 and 188 yards respectively.
The resurgence of Miami castoff Ryan Tannehill has been huge for Tennessee and in the Colts gave he passed for two TD with no INT, which is the 3rd straight game he has had that stat line.
The Titans are 3-3 on the road this season and they had lost two straight on the road before a win in Indy in their last game.
Time is Running Out
Time is running out on the Raiders and getting to the playoffs for the last time while in Oakland. They have to avoid mistakes, run the ball well, and get the W in this AFC showdown.
Josh Jacobs ranks 4th in the league in rushing yards, right behind Henry, and he rushed for over 100 yards in the bad loss to the Chiefs. He has rushed for over 100 yards in two of his last three games and in three of his last four home games.
Derek Carr is still the QB even though two terrible games in a row. He threw two first-half picks against the Chiefs and one was returned for a TD. One thing Carr has going for him is that he will be facing a Tennessee defense that only ranks 27th in the league. On the other side of the coin, Jacobs will face off against a Titans’ run D that ranks 10th in the league and held the Colts to 82 rushing yards last week.
A couple of key head-to-head betting trends that point to the Titans in this game is that the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between these teams and the favorite is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
I think Carr and the Raiders will have a bounce-back game and play well in this game. However, the Titans are hot, and they will ride Henry to another win. Tennessee will win a close one on the left coast winning and covering the spread improving their playoff chances.
PICK: Titans -3