Redskins vs. Cowboys – ATS Analysis and Free Pick – 12-29/19

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Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys Week 17 NFL Betting Analysis

Washington Redskins (3-12 6-9 ATS) at Dallas Cowboys (7-8 8-7 ATS)

The Cowboys have been a huge disappointment this season and they are an 11-point favorite in their season finale hosting the Washington Redskins in a must-win game. The total for this NFC East matchup sits at 44.5.

The public has slightly backed the Redskins in this game, as they opened as an 11.5-point underdog and as of Thursday are an 11-point dog.

The Cowboys are coming off a big 17-9 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, which may have cost them the NFC East title. For them to win the division and make the playoffs they need to win this game and have the Eagles lose to the New York Giants.

The Redskins have lost three in a row and are coming off a 41-34 OT loss to the Giants in their last game.

In Week 2 this season in the Nation’s Capital the Cowboys beat the Redskins 31-21.

The Cowboys have lost four of their last five games where they only totaled 55 points in the four losses but 44 in the lone win. They will be facing a Redskins’ defense that has given up 78 points in their last two games.

Rookie QB Dwyane Haskins had breathed some life into the Washington offense but was injured in the last game and Case Keenum will get the call. He was the starting QB in the Week 2 loss to Dallas where he passed for 221 yards and two TD with no INT but the team only rushed for 47 yards.

The Cowboys have covered the spread in four of their last five games facing the Cowboys.

Not the Best Defensive Effort

While the Redskins lost in OT to the Giants in their last game and their pass game was solid they gave up 552 total yards, including 206 rushing yards, while they had 361 yards.

Kennum came in and played well leading Washington to OT passing for 158 yards with a TD and no INT. Adrian Peterson only rushed for 36 yards on 15 carries and Chris Thompson rushed for 34 yards on eight carries.

Peterson had rushed for at least 66 yards in three straight games before struggling against the Giants. Washington will have to run the ball well, which they did not do in the Week 2 loss to the Cowboys, to have a chance to win this game.

Dallas ranks 11th in the league in pass defense and 13th in run defense.

Not Quite the Same Offensive Output

The Cowboys only scored nine points and were held out of the end zone in their last game against the Eagles while in their previous game they scored 44 points.

Dallas was outgained 431 yards to 311 yards in the loss to the Eagles and only rushed for 54 yards.

Dak Prescott could not get a TD pass in the red zone late in the game and he passed for 265 yards with no TD and no INT. Ezekiel Elliot only rushed for 47 yards averaging a weak 3.7 yards per carry after going for 117 rushing yards in the previous game.

The Cowboys need to establish the run with Zeke, and he will likely have a big workload against a Redskins’ team that was lit up for 206 rushing yards in their last game.

Washington ranks 14th in the league in pass defense, they gave up five passing TD in the loss to the Giants, and 29th in run defense.

Our Prediction

While the Skins are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Cowboys they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games facing them in Dallas.

The Redskins have nothing to lose in this game and I see them playing well on the offensive side of the ball. Keenum will play well and the Skins will have success running the ball. Their defense will get torched and Zeke will have a big game, but Washington will keep it pretty close and cover the double-digit spread in the Big D.

PICK: Redskins +11