Chargers vs. Chiefs – ATS Analysis and Free Pick – 12/29/19

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L.A. Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs – Week 17 NFL Betting Analysis

L.A. Chargers (5-10 4-9-2 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (11-4 10-5 ATS)

The Chiefs look to improve their playoff standings at home as a 9-point home favorite against the L.A. Chargers with a total sitting at 44.5.

The public has backed the hometown Chiefs in this AFC West matchup, as they opened as a 7.5-point favorite and as of Thursday are a 9-point favorite.

The Chiefs are the current 3rd seed in the AFC, but if they lose this game and the Houston Texans win their last game they will be the 4th seed. They also have a chance to move up to the 2nd seed and get a first-round playoff bye with a win and a New England Patriots loss.

The Chiefs have won five in a row and they easily won the AFC West and are the only team in the division over .500. Their defense has been stellar only giving up three points in each of their last two games and in their win streak they only gave up an average of 9.6 ppg.

Kansas City beat the Chicago Bears 26-3 in their last game.

This has been a massively disappointing season for the Chargers, who won 12 games last season. They have lost two in a row and five of their last six games. In that span they lost at home to the Chiefs 24-17. L.A. has been outscored 63-27 in their last two games and in their last game they lost at home to the Oakland Raiders 24-7.

The Chiefs have covered the spread in five of their last six games facing the Chargers.

No Run Game

In their loss to the Raiders in their last game, they were outgained 366 yards to 284 yards and only had a grand total of 19 rushing yards.

Phillip Rivers’ future with the Chargers is uncertain and he was one of the league leaders with 18 INT on the season. He did not have any in the loss to the Raiders and passed for 279 yards but did not have a TD.

Melvin Gordan “led” the Chargers with only 15 yards on nine carries and in his last two games has only totaled 43 rushing yards.

The KC defense gave up 438 yards in the earlier loss to the Chargers but picked off Rivers four times.

The Chiefs’ defense has killed it in the last two games only allowing six points and on the season they rank 8th in the league against the pass and 26th against the run.

Great Start

In their 26-3 win over the Bears in their last game the defense made many key stops and they outscored Chicago 17-0 in the first half.

The win over the Bears was on the road and they are 7-1 on the road this season.

Patrick Mahomes passed for 251 yards with two TD and no INT in the win over the Bears and also rushed for a TD. Damien Williams led KC in the game with 69 rushing yards averaging 4.1 yards per carry and he had missed a few games after getting injured in the win over the Chargers a few weeks back.

While the Chargers rank a solid 4th in the league in pass defense they only rank 16th in run defense.

Our Prediction

The Chiefs will be at full strength, as they still have a lot to play for. Unlike the last three games, KC will click on offense and put up a lot of points and like the last few games, their D will play well. They will shut down the Chargers and Mahomes will do the rest, as the Chiefs will win and cover in their house.

PICK: Chiefs -9