Redskins vs. Packers – Free Pick and ATS Analysis – 12/8/19

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Washington Redskins vs. Green Bay Packers – Week 14 NFL Betting Analysis

Washington Redskins (3-9 5-7 ATS) at Green Bay Packers (9-3 8-4 ATS)

The Washington Redskins have won two in a row but they head to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Packers as a huge 13-point underdog with a total sitting at 41.5.

The public has actually backed the Redskins in this game, as they opened as a 14-point underdog and as of Wednesday are a 13-point dog.

How about those Redskins? They have won two in a row and in their last game, they beat the Carolina Panthers 29-21 where they tore it up on the ground to the tune of 248 rushing yards.

The Packers have won two of their last three games but were trounced in the only game in that span facing a team with a winning record. Well, that is far from the Redskins, hence the huge spread.

Green Bay is in first place in the NFC North with a slight one-game lead over the Minnesota Vikings, who they face on the road in their 2nd to last game of the season. They are one game back the Seahawks, 49ers, who crushed them in the game before their last one, and the Saints, so they need a lot of help to move up and host more than one playoff game at Lambeau.

The defense for the Packers has been up and down in the last few games and hard to believe with 22 TD and only two INT that Aaron Rodgers ranks 14th in QBR.

These teams met early last season in the Nation’s Capital where the Redskins beat the Packers 31-17.

The Packers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four home games facing the Redskins.

Run Skins, Run!

In their 29-21 win over the Panthers not only did the Redskins rush for 248 yards but they held Carolina to 65 rushing yards. Derrius Guice rushed for 129 yards with two TD and Adrian Peterson rushed for 99 yards and a score.

Guice was Washington’s 2nd round pick of the 2018 draft and missed all of last season with a knee injury and most of this season with one as well. He had only totaled 74 rushing yards in three games before going for 129 in the last one. Peterson had only totaled 54 yards in two games, failing to average over 2.7 yards per carry in each, before going for 99 against the Panthers.

The run game was huge for the Skins and rookie QB Dwayne Haskins did not do much passing for 147 yards with no TD and no INT. he has only two TD to go along with six INT on the season and he has not gotten much help from the banged-up offensive line being sacked 15 times in the last three games.

Green Bay began the season playing great defense but that has not been the case in the 2nd half. Overall, they rank 22nd in the league in pass defense and only 25th in run defense. You can be sure their run D will be tested by the Redskins, who will hit the ground early and often.

Rodgers Takes it Up a Notch

In the Packers’ last game, they beat the New York Giants 31-13 where Aaron Rodgers had four TD and this was after only passing for two TD in his previous three games.

Green Bay had fewer yards in the win over New York (335-322) and they only rushed for 79 yards but they forced three turnovers and did not commit any.

Rodgers was 21/33 for 243 yards with the four TD and he was not picked off. Allen Lazard was his main target for a season-high 103 receiving yards and a TD and Jamaal Williams led Green Bay with 41 rushing yards and the lead rusher for the season in Aaron Jones rushed for only 18 yards averaging a paltry 1.6 yards per carry.

The Skins are just like the Packers in that they rank in the middle of the pack in pass defense (15th) but have struggled against the run (27th). However, the run D of Washington bottled up Carolina’s Christian McCaffery last week.

Our Prediction

 The Packers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four home games against the Skins and the home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six games between these NFC foes.

The Redskins will hit the ground running in this game and they will be successful doing it. Haskins will be decent but Peterson and Guice will be the main reason Washington will keep this game competitive. The Skins’ defense has no answer for Rodgers, who will have a big game, but I see Washington’s run defense playing well for the 2nd straight game. I am a Redskins fan and my buddy Jolly is a Packers fan and while he will be happy that the Packers win at least I can take comfort in the fact my Skins will not be blown out and they will cover the spread.

PICK: Redskins +13