Broncos vs. Texans – ATS Analysis and Free Pick – 12/8/19

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Denver Broncos vs. Houston Texans – Week 14 NFL Betting Analysis

Denver Broncos (4-8 7-5 ATS) at Houston Texans (8-4 6-6 ATS)

The Houston Texans are coming off a big win over the New England Patriots and in Week 14 at home, they are a 9.5-point favorite facing the 4-8 Denver Broncos. The total for this AFC matchup is posted at 42.5.

No surprise that the public has backed the Texans in this game, as they opened as an 8.5-point favorite and as of Wednesday are a 9.5-point favorite.

The Texans are coming off a 28-24 win over the Pats in their last game and they have won two in a row and four of their last five games. If the playoffs ended today Houston would be the 3rd seed in the NFC but they are only one game on the Tennessee Titans in the AFC South and they still face them twice in their last three games.

This has been a long season for the Broncos, but they are coming off a win. Still, they are sitting at four wins and they have only won one road game this season. The team ranks 29th in the league in ppg and if there is one silver lining is that rookie and 2nd round draft pick Drew Lock showed some promise in winning his NFL debut last week.

Houston has a balanced team that ranks 10th in the league in ppg and has beaten two legit teams in their last two games in the Patriots and Colts.

Promise at the QB Position?

The Broncos have whiffed on QB’s since Peyton Manning took them to the Super Bowl a few years back but Drew Lock was good in his debut last week. Denver beat the L.A. Chargers 23-20 and the rookie QB passed for only 134 yards and had a pick but also passed for two TD and scrambled for 15 yards on two carries.

The Broncos had a little luck on their side in the win over the Chargers not hitting a 53-yard game-winning field goal as time expired but getting a pass interference call that was a little suspect.

Denver only had 218 total yards in the Chargers win, L.A. had 359 yards, but they forced two turnovers and jumped out to a 14-0 halftime lead.

Phillip Lindsay rushed for 58 yards in the last game but only averaged 3.4 yards per carry. He has rushed for over 100 yards only once this season and in his last two games has totaled 115 yards.

Houston’s defense only ranks 28th in the league against the pass and 19th against the pass but that unit has played pretty well in the last two games.

Beating the Giant

In their last game, the Texans beat the New England Patriots 28-22 behind three TD passes from Deshawn Watson. He also caught a TD pass on a trick play, and they won even though they were outgained 448 yards to 276 yards. Watson passed for 234 yards in the game and in his last two games he has five TD and only one INT.

The Texans have a good WR corps with the likes of DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller V, and Kenny Stills and Hopkins and Stills combined for 125 receiving yards in the win over New England.

The run game was not good in the Pats win, as the Texans only rushed for 52 yards and Duke Johnson led the way with 36 yards.

Houston cannot overlook the Broncos looking forward to their next game, which is a big one on the road facing the Titans.

Denver ranks 5th in the league in pass defense but only 20th in run defense. Star LB Von Miller is dealing with an injury and is questionable for this game.

Our Prediction

The Texans have their eye on the prize, which is the AFC South title. They have to face the hot Titans twice, but they will not take the Broncos for granted. Watson will have a solid game and the Texans’ run game will chip in after failing to do so in the win over New England. Even giving 9.5 points Houston will win and cover at home sending the Broncos to their 3rd loss in their last four games.

PICK: Texans -9.5