Oakland Raiders vs. Houston Texans – Week 8 NFL Betting Analysis
Oakland Raiders (3-3 3-3 ATS) at Houston Texans (4-3 4-3 ATS)
Both of these teams in this AFC showdown in the Lone Star State are coming off a loss and the Texans are a 6.5-point favorite with a total sitting at 51.5.
The public has slight leaned on the Raiders in this game, as they opened as a 7-point underdog and as of Thursday are a 6.5-point dog.
The Raiders had won two in a row before getting blitzed in their last game by Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers losing 42-24.
The Texans had also won two straight before losing their last game falling to the Indianapolis Colts 30-23.
These teams met last in the 2017 season.
The favorite has covered the spread in five of the last seven games between these teams.
This season the Raiders are 1-2 on the road and the Texans are 2-1 at home.
No Answer for Rodgers
In their loss to the Packers the Oakland pass defense was torched by Aaron Rodgers, who had a perfect passer rating and had 429 yards with 5 TD and no INT and was only sacked once.
The Raiders had more yards in the loss to Green Bay (484-481) and stuffed the run but they could not deal with Rodgers and they committed two turnovers and did not force any.
Oakland’s offense was solid in the game and Derek Carr passed for 293 yards with 2 TD and an INT and Darren Walker was his main target with 126 receiving yards.
Josh Jacobs rushed for 124 yards in the Green Bay game and rushed for 123 yards in his previous game. The rookie from Alabama leads the team with 554 rushing yards and 4 TD averaging 5.1 yards per carry but he is listed as questionable for this game after suffering a shoulder injury in the last game.
If Jacobs can’t go it will be a big blow and DeAndre Washington will get the start in the backfield and he has 103 yards and has averaged 3.6 yards per carry.
While Houston has the leagues 3rd ranked run defense they only rank 29th in the league in pass defense.
Pass Defense Can’t Get it Done
In the 30-23 loss to the Colts in their last game the Texans weakness in their pass defense was exposed. The D played the run well, but they gave up four passing TD and 321 passing yards.
Deshaun Watson passed for 308 yards in the loss to the Colts and had a TD but was picked off twice. His MVP talk has died down in the last two games where in each he threw 2 picks and one TD.
DeAndre Hopkins and Kenny Stills each had over 100 receiving yards in the Indy game and while the team totaled 100 rushing yards no player had over 35 of them. Carlos Hyde only averaged 2.9 yards per carry, and this is after rushing for a season high 116 yards in the previous game.
Oakland is just like the Texans in that their pass defense has been bad ranking 31st in the league while their run defense has been good ranking 5th.
Our Prediction
The Raiders have covered the spread in six of their last seven games following a loss. On the other side of the coin the Texans are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games after a loss.
Have to go with the Texans in this one, as they are at home and Watson will shred the Oakland secondary like the Packers did. They will not blow out the Raiders but they will get the win and cover the spread sending Oakland under .500 on the season.
PICK: Texans -6.5