The Bills are coming off a tough home loss to the New England Patriots and this Sunday they head south to face the Tennessee Titans, who are a three-point favorite with a total sitting at 38.5.
The public has really been backing the Titans at home in this one, as they opened as 1.5-point favorites and as of Tuesday morning they are three-point favorites.
Not only did the Bills lose to the New England Patriots in their last game 16-10 but may have lost starting QB Josh Allen who left the game with a concussion and is questionable for this game.
The Titans are coming off a 24-10 win over the Atlanta Falcons that snapped their two-game losing streak. They have a good defense and their run defense will be tested in this game by Buffalo team that ranks 4th in the league in rushing yards per game.
These teams met last season at Buffalo where the Bills beat the Titans 13-12 in a defensive battle.
The road team has covered the spread in five of the last seven games between these teams.
Turnovers Cost the Bills
In the 16-10 loss to the Patriots the Bills outgained them 375 yards to 224 yards and shut down Tom Brady but they had four turnovers and only forced one.
Allen had his worst game of the season only going 13/28 for 153 yards with no TD and three picks and when Matt Barkley came in after the injury, he threw an INT.
The one highlight for the game on offense for the Bills was the play of Frank Gore, who at 36 years old rushed for 109 yards and averaged a more than legit 6.4 yards per carry. He has rushed for 185 yards in his last two games where in each he averaged at least 5.4 yards per carry.
The Bills will look to run early and often in this game with an unsure QB situation and rookie RB Devin Singletary, who has been out since Week 2 with a hamstring injury, should be ready to go in this game.
Tennessee ranks in the middle of the pack in the NFL in run defense but held the Falcons to 58 rushing yards in their last game. Their run D was not great in the first two games but in the last two they have only given up 143 yards on the ground.
More Balance Helps
In the Titans 24-10 win over the Falcons they had fewer overall yards (364 to 227) but had better balance and forced the game’s only turnover.
Tennessee had 227 passing yards and 138 rushing yards in the Atlanta win with Marcus Mariota passing for three first half TD and while only averaging 3.7 yards per carry Derrick Henry rushed for 100 yards.
A.J. Brown and Corey Davis each had at least 91 receiving yards and the Titans’ offensive line did not give up any sacks.
Buffalo’s defense is a balanced on ranking in the top 10 in the NFL both defending the pass and the run.
Our Prediction
The Bills have covered the spread in four of their last five road games while the Titans have failed to cover in four of their last five home games.
The Bills will play a solid game on defense, but their offense will struggle. This game will be like last season’s defensive battle but this time around the Titans will get the win and will also cover at home giving three points.
PICK: Titans -3