Titans vs. Texans – ATS Analysis and Free Pick – 12/29/19

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Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans – Week 17 NFL Betting Analysis

Tennessee Titans (8-7 7-7-1 ATS) at Houston Texans (10-5 7-7-1 ATS)

The Titans can nab a playoff berth with a win, and they head to the Lone Star State as a 3.5-point favorite over the Texans with a total at 45.

The public has backed the Titans in this game, as they opened as a 2.5-point favorite and as of Tuesday are a 3.5-point favorite.

The Texans are in the playoffs as the AFC South winners and they are currently the 4th see in the AFC. They can move up to the 3rd seed if they beat the Titans and the L.A. Chargers beat the Kansas City Chiefs.

It remains to be seen if the Texans will be at full strength of this game. They are likely without 2nd leading WR Will Fuller V, but other Texans may get rest. They are playing the later afternoon game and if the Chiefs win the early game Houston has no chance to catch KC so this game will not mean anything in terms of the playoff seed.

The Titans are tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers but have the tiebreaker. If they win or if the Steelers lose they are in the playoffs. There is a longshot scenario that the Steelers will get in the playoffs if they and Tennessee lose, but it is very unlikely to say the least.

A couple of weeks back in Tennessee the Texans beat the Titans 24-21.

The Texans have covered the spread in their last five home games against the Titans.

The Titans have lost two in a row while the Texans have won two in a row and four of their last five games.

Tennessee could Use their Big Gun

Titans RB Derrick Henry has the 4th most rushing yards in the league and missed the last game, which was a 38-28 road loss to the New Orleans Saints. He is nursing a hamstring injury and he should be able to go in this season finale.

In the loss to the Saints they had more yards but in the 2nd half, they were outscored 28-14. Ryan Tannehill passed for 272 yards with three TD and no INT and Dion Lewis rushed for 68 yards and WR A.J. Brown had a 49-yard TD run on his lone carry.

Houston’s defense ranks 3rd to last in the NFL against the pass and 20th against the run. The Texans gave up 435 yards in their last game and also gave up 432 yards in their previous game to Tennessee and won both games.

Wrapping it Up

In their last game, the Texans were on the road and beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23-20. They were outgained by over 200 yards but forced five turnovers and their pick near the end of the game killed the Bucs chances to tie or win the game.

Deshawn Watson passed for 184 yards with no TD and an INT and he was dealing with an ankle injury. He also led the team with 37 rushing yards and Carlos Hyde only rushed for 27 yards after rushing for 104 in the previous game against the Titans.

The lineup for Houston will be determined by if the Chiefs win the early game and if they do it would be surprising if Watson and Hyde and a few other starters play.

The Titans’ defense ranks 11th in the league against the run and 24th against the pass.

Our Prediction

While the Titans have not covered in their last five games against the Texans in Houston they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.

I don’t see the Chiefs losing to the Chargers and, therefore, I do not see Watson and some key guys seeing the field in this one. Tannehill will play well, and I think Henry will be ready to go and have a good game. The Titans will get the W against a, likely, shorthanded Houston and will snag the last AFC playoff berth.

PICK: Titans -3.5