49ers vs. Seahawks – ATS Analysis and Free Pick – 12/29/19

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San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks – Week 17 NFL Betting Analysis

San Francisco 49ers (12-3 8-6-1 ATS) at Seattle Seahawks (11-4 7-7-1 ATS)

The NFC West title is up for grabs with the Seahawks a 3-point home underdog facing he 49ers with a total sitting at 47.

The public has backed the 49ers in this huge game, as they opened as a 2-point favorite and as of Tuesday are a 3-point favorite.

If the 49ers win this game they win the NFC West and will be the #1 seed in playoffs. If the Seahawks win they will win the division and likely have the 3rd seed in the NFC hosting a Wild Card playoff game.

The Seahawks are coming off a 27-13 home loss to the Cardinals where they not only lost ground in the NFC playoffs but also lost lead RB Chris Carson, who has the 5th most rushing yards in the league, to a season-ending hip injury.

The Seahawks brought in a familiar face on Monday signing former star RB Marshawn Lynch as well as former RB Robert Turbin. These guys will likely see action right away as the top 3 RB’s for Seattle are all out for the season.

The Seahawks beat the 49ers 27-24 in OT earlier this season.

In the last eight games between these teams in Seattle the Seahawks are 6-1-1 ATS.

Big Win

In their last game, the 49ers got a big win beating the L.A. Rams 34-31. While they were outgained (395 yards to 334 yards) and had more turnovers (2-1) they outscored the Rams 10-3 in the 4th quarter and kicked the game-winning field goal as time expired.

Jimmy Garoppolo passed for 248 yards and had a TD and also had two INT. George Kittle led the way with 79 receiving yards and Raheem Mostert led San Fran with 53 rushing yards.

The 49ers are led by their run game on offense and rushed for 119 yards in the win over the Rams but only rushed for 87 yards in the loss to the Seahawks earlier this season.

Matt Breida (607 yards) did not have any carries in the win over the Rams and Morris has taken over as the lead back. Whoever is in the backfield will be facing a Seattle defense that gave up 253 rushing yards in their last game. Overall, Seattle only ranks 27th in the NFL in pass defense and 24th in run defense.

Can Beast Mode Help?

The loss of Carson is a big one and Seattle hopes Lynch, aka Beast Mode, can bottle up some old magic when he starred for the team a few seasons back. He has not played this season after spending two seasons with the Oakland Raiders.

The Seahawks were shocked at home in the last game in the loss to the Cardinals where they gave up 412 yards, were torched on the ground, and only had 224 yards.

Russell Wilson passed for 169 yards with a TD and no INT and Carson had rushed for 40 yards before going down with an injury. He had a big game in the earlier win over the 49ers passing for 232 yards with a TD and also rushed for 53 yards. His line has to protect him better than they did in the loss to Arizona was he was sacked five times.

The 49ers have the league’s top-ranked pass defense but only rank 17th in run defense.

Our Prediction

Seattle used to be a place where the Seahawks rarely lost, but this season they are only 4-3 at home. On the other side of the coin the 49ers are 6-1 on the road.

The 49ers have not been a good bet in the last several seasons playing the Seahawks in the Great Northwest. On top of that they have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games as a road favorite.

Going to buck the trends above, as the 49ers are the pick in this division matchup. I think Seattle will really miss Carson and San Francisco will keep Wilson from having a huge game. The 49ers will run the ball well and add that with good D and you get a San Francisco win and they will also cover the spread.

PICK: 49ers -3