Chicago Bears vs. Tennessee Titans – Week 9 NFL Free Pick – 11/8/20

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titans pick
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Chicago Bears (5-3 5-3 ATS) at Tennessee Titans (5-2 2-5 ATS)

The Bears have lost two in a row and head south to face a Titans team that has also dropped their last two games. The Titans are a 5.5-point home favorite in this non-conference affair with the total sitting at 46.5.

The public has slightly backed the Bears in this game, as they opened as a 6.5-point underdog, and as of Tuesday are a 5.5-point dog.

These teams have not met since the 2016 season.

While the Bears are 5-3 and in the NFC North race the team has issues on offense and Nick Foles may be on the hot seat. The team only ranks 28th in the league in ppg and while the QB issue in the Windy City has been a big one it is the run game, which ranks second to last in the NFL in rushing yards per game, that had been the main weakness.

After starting the season 5-0 the Titans have lost their last two games. In their last game they lost to the lowly Cincinnati Bengals 31-20 where they could not stop Cincy on third down.

The Bears have a good defense but have not been dominant like they should with the names on that side of the field. They have struggled against the run, which is not good facing Tennessee’s Derick Henry, who leads the league in rushing yards by a wide margin.

The Bears have failed to cover in three of their last 10 road games but face a Titans team that has failed to cover in five of their last six games as a favorite.

QB Controversy, Again?

The Bears have lost two in a row and there may be a QB issue in the Windy City after the last loss, which was a 26-23 OT loss to the New Orleans Saints.

Nick Foles took over for Mitch Trubisky early in the season but with Foles’ play as of late, there are rumblings the team may go back to Trubisky. Foles was 28 for 41 for 272 yards in the loss to the Saints but the pick hurt the team badly and he has three picks and only two TD in his last two games. Foles only ranks 27th in the league in QBR, but should still get the start in this game.

Chicago is led by their D but they have given up 50 points in their last two games. The D is key for a team that only ranks 28th in the league in ppg.

You can’t put all the blame on Foles, who has not gotten much help from a run game that ranks second to last in the league in rushing yards per game. David Montgomery had a pretty good game facing the Saints with 89 yards but is only averaging 3.8 yards per carry.

The Titans’ D has given up 58 points in their last two games, so the Bears may have a chance to put up some points for a change.

At Least Out of the Division

The Titans started 5-0 but have lost their last two games, which were both in the AFC North. They were, somewhat, shocked in their last game losing to the Cincinnati Bengals 31-20 where they outgained Cincy 441 yards to 367 yards.

Derrick Henry leads the NFL in rushing yards and in the loss to the Bengals rushed for 112 yards with 1 TD and averaged a legit 6.2 yards per carry. Tennessee has to ride him and not get down as they did in the last game.

Ryan Tannehill ranks seventh in the league in QBR and has eight TD and only two picks in his last two games.

Tennessee has Henry and Tannehill in place playing well but the supporting cast and defense have to step up, which they have not done with the team losing two in a row.

Prediction

The Bears are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games, but the Titans are have only covered in one of their last six games as a favorite.

I don’t believe in the Bears and while they have five wins they will not add to that total in this game. Henry will have a big game and the Titans will avoid mistakes in their house, which is why they will win and cover in this non-conference matchup.

 PICK: Titans -6.5