Indianapolis Colts (3-1 3-1 ATS) at Cleveland Browns (3-1 2-2 ATS)
The 3-1 Colts head to Cleveland where they will be facing a hot Browns’ team that has won their last three games and put up 49 points in their last game. Even these teams gave the best record and the Colts are the road team they are the 1.5-point betting favorite with the total sitting at 47.
The public has been backing the Browns in this AFC matchup, as they opened as a 2.5-point underdog, and as of Wednesday are a 1-point dog.
Indy has also won three in a row after losing their opener. The team ranks in the middle of the pack in passing and rushing yards per game and they lead the NFL in scoring defense only giving up an average of 14 ppg.
After only scoring six points in their season-opening loss the Browns’ offense has lit it up winning three in a row where they have averaged 39.3 ppg. However, all is now well for Cleveland with star RB Nick Chubb injured and expected to miss a few weeks.
These teams have not met since the 2017 season.
The Colts have failed to cover in five of their last seven games as a road favorite, but the Browns have failed to cover the spread in 19 of their last 26 games as a home underdog.
The D has Killed It
The Colts are coming off a 19-11 win over the Chicago Bears and in their last three games have only allowed 29 points. In the win over the Bears, the team held them to 269 yards and totally stuffed the run only allowing 28 rushing yards.
Phillip Rivers passed for 190 yards in the Bears game and for the second straight game had one TD and no picks. He has been pretty good in his first year with the Colts and in the last game, he threw a pass to nine different targets.
Rookie Jonathan Taylor has rushed for 250 yards to lead the Colts but is only averaging 3.8 yards per carry. He has been thrust into the starting lineup with the season-ending to Marlon Mack and will face a solid Cleveland run defense that held the Cowboys to 85 rushing yards in their last game.
Cleveland Flying High
The Browns have won three straight and beat the Cowboys in their last game 49-24 where they were up 41-14 entering the fourth quarter.
Even losing Nick Chubb at the beginning of the game the Browns still dominated the ground game against Dallas rushing for 307 yards.
Baker Mayfield only passed for 195 yards in the Cowboys game but had two TD and no INT and he has four TD and no picks in his last two games. He has played well since a shaky first game and Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry could give t4he Indy secondary nightmares.
The Browns were tricking in their last game with Beckham Jr’ scoring on a 50-yard end-around run and Landry passing for a 37-yard TD. Will, they be tricky again against the Colts and their-top-ranked defense after facing Dallas and their defense that ranks dead last in the NFL?
The Colts are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games facing a team with a winning record while the Browns are only 6-23-2 in their last 31 games against a team with a winning record.
The Colts have been playing great defense so far on the season but even without Chubb, Mayfield and company will move the ball. Cleveland will get a good game from the offense and the defense will keep Indy in check.
This game will be a close one and I don’t see too many offensive fireworks going off. At home, the Browns will not only cover but get the W for their fourth win in a row.
PICK: Browns +1