Indianapolis Colts (5-3 4-4 ATS) at Tennessee Titans (6-2 3-5 ATS)
In a key AFC South matchup on Thursday night the Tennessee Titans play host to the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts are a slight 1.5-point betting favorite in this game with the total sitting at 49.
While the total has gone down a tad since opening the line has not changed as of Tuesday.
These teams play twice in the next three games and last season they split the two games with each winning on the road.
The Titans got over their first two losses of the season with a 24-17 win over the Chicago Bears in their last game. They have a one-game lead in the division over the Colts, who had won two in a row before a 24-10 loss to the Baltimore Ravens in their last game.
The Colts are led by a defense that ranks third in the league giving up an average of 20 ppg. That D will be facing a Tennessee team that ranks seventh in the NFL in ppg and sixth in rushing yards per game.
The Colts are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games facing the Titans and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games facing them on the road.
Costly Mistakes
In the Colts loss to the Ravens in their last game they held them to only 54 yards and no points in the first half but two costly second-half turnovers led to 14 Baltimore points.
Phillip Rivers has been decent in his first season in Indy but only ranks 20th in the league in QBR. He had six TD and one INT before the Ravens game where he passed for 227 yards with no TD and a pick.
Rookie Jonathan Taylor leads the Colts in rushing yards, and he has struggled with only 49 rushing yards in his last two games.
The Colts have five players that have at least 220 receiving yards. Tennessee’s defense has been decent on the season and while they stuffed the run in the win over the Bears they gave up 319 passing yards.
Holding On
After shutting out the Bears 17-0 through three quarters the Titans held on to beat them 24-17 in their last game. They were outgained 375 yards to 228 yards but forced two turnovers while not committing any and held Chicago to only 56 rushing yards.
\The big gun on offense for the Titans is RB Derrick Henry, who ranks second in the league in rushing yards. He has been up and down in the last few games failing to rush for over 75 yards or overage over 3.8 yards per carry in two of his last three games.
Henry faced two strong run defenses in the two of the last three games not putting up big numbers. He faces another strong run D in this game facing the Colts, who gave up 110 rushing yards in their last game but faced a Ravens team that leads the league averaging just over 170 rushing yards per game.
Ryan Tannehill has been solid on the season (19 TD 3 INT) and has six TD and only one pick in his last three games. While the Titans do not have any big names in the WR corps they are balanced and A.J. Brown is coming off a 100+ yard game and leads the team with 457 receiving yards and six TD.
Prediction
The Colts have failed to cover in four of their last five games facing a team with a winning record. The Titans are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite.
Rivers did not look good in the last game and made a costly mistake. I think he will struggle in this game facing a Tennessee defense that will come after him all game.
Henry will bounce back and run well facing a solid Indy run defense help the Titans control the clock. This game will be pretty close but Tennessee will win in their house and cover the spread taking control of the AFC South in the process.
PICK: Titans pk