Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins – Week 14 NFL Pick – 12/13/20

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Kansas City Chiefs (11-1 6-6 ATS) at Miami Dolphins (8-4 6-6 ATS)

The Chiefs are already in the playoffs and head to the Sunshine State to face the Dolphins, who are poised to make the post-season for the first time since 2016. The Chiefs are a 7-point road favorite in this AFC matchup with a total of 49.5.

The public has actually backed the Fins in this game, as they opened as a 7.5-point underdog and as of Thursday are a 7-point dog.

The Chiefs have won seven in a row but their last few games have not been overly impressive. In their last four games, their average margin of victory has only been 3.3 points. Two of those games came against sub .500 teams but the team still is 11-1. However, while tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers for the best record in the AFC Pittsburgh holds the tiebreaker since they have a better division record.

The Dolphins have won two in a row and seven of their last eight games. They are in the sixth spot in the AFC and in the AFC East are one game back of the Buffalo Bills, who they lost to early in the season and face in the season finale.

The Fins are playing well but have played a weak schedule and in their last two games, their opponents have a grand total of two wins.

Patrick Mahomes is the MVP front runner and will up against rookie Tua Tagovailoa, who put up a career-high in passing yards in his last game.

These teams have not met since the 2017 season.

Little Bump

The Chiefs have been winning but they have not been impressive wins as of late. Their dynamic offense has only scored 27 points and 22 points, respectively, in their last two games. In their last game, they faced a Denver Broncos team that came into the game 4-7 and beat them 22-16.

Mahomes ranks first in the league in passing yards and QBR and third in TD. He has all the weapons with the likes of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelse and while the yards have been there in the last few games KC has not lit up the scoreboard like we are used to seeing.

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire leads the Chiefs with 692 rushing yards but the rookie has rushed for over 46 yards in one of his last five games and in the game he did had 69 yards.

Miami’s defense does rank second in the league in scoring defense (17.7 ppg) and their pass rush has 31 sacks and that unit will be key in this game. While they have only given up 10 points in the last two games they have faced the Jets and Bengals.

It’s Tua Time, Again

Tua is back after missing some time with a thumb injury that is still an issue but he will get the start in this game. On the season he has seven TD and no INT and in the last game, which was a 19-7 win over the Bengals, he passed for 296 yards with a TD.

RB Myles Gaskin has come on strong as of late rushing for at least 90 yards in two of his last three games.

DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki have combined for 1,214 yards with eight TD and Gaskin had 51 receiving yards in the last game.

Kansas City’s weakness on the defensive side of the ball has been their run defense. It is vital that the Fins run the ball well to keep Mahomes and company off the field. If that does not happen and Tua has to outduel Mahomes it is a likely loss for Miami.


The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in their last four games. On the other side of the coin, the Dolphins have covered in their last four home games.

Bucking the above trends in this one, as I think KC will come out guns a-blazin’. They have played close games in their last few but they will win this game comfortably with Mahomes and the KC offense lighting it up, which they have not done in the last few games. Tua will play well but their D will not contain Mahomes and the offense will not be able to keep up. Miami may hang around for a while but the Chiefs will pull away in the second half and win and cover.

PICK: Chiefs -7