Pittsburgh Steelers (11-1 8-4 ATS) at Buffalo Bills (9-3 7-5 ATS)
Big time AFC matchup in primetime on Sunday night with the no-longer perfect Pittsburgh Steelers heading to northern New York to take on the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are a 2.5-point home favorite with the total sitting at 46.5.
The Steelers are coming off their first loss of the season losing 23-17 to the Washington Football team. That is the main reason the public has really backed the Bills, as they opened as a 2.5-point underdog and as of Thursday are a 2.5-point favorite.
While the Steelers are coming off a loss and tied with the Kansas City Chiefs for the top spot in the AFC Pittsburgh holds the tiebreaker with a better division record.
The Bills have won two in a row and five of their last six games. They are atop the AFC East with a one-game lead over the Miami Dolphins, who they beat earlier this season and host in the season finale.
Buffalo is coming off a 34-24 win over the San Francisco 49ers in their last game and while they rank eighth in the league in scoring (27.8 ppg) they will be up against the top-ranked Steelers’ defense that is only giving up an average of 17.6 ppg.
These teams met last season in Pittsburgh where the Bills beat the Steelers 17-10.
The Steelers have covered the spread in five of their last seven games facing the Bills.
Second Half Dooms Perfect Season
In the Steelers’ first loss of the season to the Washington Football team, they jumped out to a 14-0 lead but were outscored 20-3 in the second half. While they stuffed the run they only rushed for 21 yards and while Ben Roethlisberger passed for 305 yards with two TD his late fourth-quarter INT killed the comeback chance.
Big Ben has played pretty well this season and while he has five TD in his last three games he also has three INT.
One thing the Steelers have going for them in this game is they will get lead rusher James Conner back after missing two games due to COVID-19.
The Buffalo defense ranks in the middle of the pack and in their last game held the 49ers to 86 rushing yards. While they did give up 316 passing yards they also had two INT.
Allen Leads the Way
Josh Allen is having a solid season leading a Bills team that ranks third in the league in passing yards per game. He has 10 TD in his last four games and after three picks in two games he was not picked off in the last game against the 49ers.
The Buffalo run game only ranks 23rd in the league in rushing yards per game. Lead RB Devin Singletary has totaled 143 rushing yards in the last two games but only averaged 3.4 yards per carry in the last game.
Allen and company will be facing a great Steelers’ defense that has been strong against the pass and the run. Their pass rush is also great with 44 sacks led by T.J. Watt, who leads the NFL with 12 sacks.
Prediction
The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games but the Bills have covered the spread in their last four games.
A great matchup in this game and the big question is can Allen and the Buffalo offense move the chains on the Pittsburgh defense? I think they will be able to but their D will also play well. I see a battle in this game, which will go back and forth. However, Buffalo will come out on top winning and covering with Allen making plays with his arm and legs.
PICK: Bills -2.5