Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers – NFC Championship NFL Betting Analysis
Green Bay Packers (14-3 11-6 ATS) at San Francisco 49ers (14-3 10-6-1 ATS)
The Packers’ last loss was to the 49ers in San Fran and in this NFC title game, they are a 7.5-point favorite with a total sitting at 45.
The spread and the total have not changed for this game as of Wednesday.
The 49ers crushed the Packers at home 38-7 in Late November where they killed it in defense and ran the ball well. That was exactly their blueprint for their last game where they beat the Minnesota Vikings 27-10.
The Packers have not lost since falling to the 49ers on the left coast and last week at home they beat the Seattle Seahawks 28-23.
The 49ers have covered the spread in five of their last seven games facing the Packers.
Can Rodgers figure out the San Fran defense? That is the biggest question of this game.
Rodgers Comes up Big
Rodgers put up a good stat line in the win over the Seahawks last week (16/27 243 yards 2 TD 0 INT), but his play in the clutch sealed the game. Late in the 4th quarter Green Bay rookie head coach Matt LaFleur wad gutsy allowing Rodgers to convert two 3rd downs of at least eight yards to allow them to run out the clock.
Davante Adams was Rodgers’ main target in the Seattle game to the tune of 160 receiving yards and while RB Aaron Jones rushed for 62 yards he only averaged three yards per carry.
In this game, Rodgers faces a 49ers’ defense that held him to a season-low 104 passing yards, and he was sacked five times. He could use some help from the run game and the offensive line in this game.
The San Francisco defense is the top-ranked unit in the NFL against the pass but only 17th defending the run. However, their D was smothering in the win over Minnesota last week holding them to only 147 yards and they stuffed the run game holding them to only 21 rushing yards.
San Fran has the D and a Little More
The 49ers are led by their defense, but they also have one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL. Their defense was more than impressive last week in the win over Minnesota and in that game, they rushed for 186 yards.
In the Vikings’ win Jimmy Garoppolo passed for 131 yards with a TD and an INT and Tevin Coleman (105 yards 4.8 yards per carry) and Raheem Mostert (58 yards 4.8 yards per carry) stepped up.
Coleman and Mostert combined to rush for 84 yards in the earlier win over the Packers, who allowed 110 rushing yards in the win over Seattle last week.
The Green Bay defense ranks 14th in the league against the pass and 23rd against the run but the run D will be more important for them in this conference title game.
The Packers have covered the spread in their last seven games facing a team with a winning record with the one ATS loss in that span in the later season game against the 49ers.
The 49ers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games.
I see this game being a much closer one than the game several weeks back between these teams. Unlike that game, Rodgers will come up big, once again, and while Green Bay may not win they will cover getting 7.5 points. I actually think Green Bay will get the W in this one, which is why the moneyline is a good pick in this game.
PICK: Packers +7.5
Bettorsworld pick – Certainly a case can be made for the 49ers covering this spot at home. In fact, of the two games this weekend, this is the game where our model suggest there is no doubt about the outcome.
The model predicts a 49ers win by anywhere from 9 to 17 points. Now, we often regret going against the model as it traditionally nails these high profile games, but that’s what we are going to do here.
After beating Green Bay back in November, the 49ers ended the season on a 5 game run that saw them tested against some pretty good teams, some with an offensive punch.
How did the San Fran fare? They went 3-2, losing to the Ravens and Falcons and beating the Saints, Rams and Seahawks. Those wins were by 2, 3 and 5 points.
So, 5 games, 3 of them against playoff teams and an inability to extend a margin in the 3 games that they won.
Sure, the 49ers were able to extend a margin last week against the Vikings but the Packers figure to pose much more of an offensive threat this week. The common theme we have seen when the 49ers take on a legit team is a close game. WIth that in mind, we’ll back the back here and take the generous spot.