Seattle Seahawks vs. Green Bay Packers – Divisional Playoffs NFL Betting Analysis
Seattle Seahawks (12-5 8-8-1 ATS) at Green Bay Packers (13-3 10-6 ATS)
The Packers had a bye last week and at home, in Lambeau, they are a 4-point betting favorite facing a Seahawks’ team that beat the Eagles in the Wild Card round. The total for this big-time NFC playoff matchup is set at 47.
Not much has changed in this game in terms of the spread and the total and as of Thursday, the spread has not changed since opening while the total has only gone from 46 to 47.
The Seahawks beat the Philadelphia eagles 17-9 in their last game where Russell Wilson carries the offense. They did only give up nine points but were facing a backup QB in Josh McCown with them knocking out Carson Wentz early in the first quarter. Seattle gave up a total of 53 points in losing their last two games of the regular season.
Green Bay rides a 5-game winning streak into the playoffs, and they have a bye last week. Aaron Rodgers had a solid season and got a lot of help from Aaron Jones and a defense that gave up an average of 14.2 ppg in their 5-game win streak.
The last time these teams met was last season in Seattle where the Seahawks beat the Packers 27-24 event though Rodgers passed for over 300 yards.
On the season the Packers are 7-1 at home and the Seahawks are 8-1 on the road.
The Packers have been the team to bet on in the last several games between these teams going 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games against the Seahawks.
Can Wilson Get Some Help?
Russell Wilson could use some help in this game after the last game where he accounted for most of the offense. In the Eagles win he passed for 325 yards with a TD and no picks and rushed for 45 of the 64 yards Seattle had in the game.
DK Metcalf came up big in the win over Philly, catching the TD pass, leading the Seahawks with 160 receiving yards, and his big catch near the end of the game ised the win.
Seattle’s RB corps has been decimated by injury and they have three backs on IR. Marshawn Lynch was brought back but has not been a factor in the last two games since being signed and in the Eagles’ win, he and Travis Homer combined for only 19 yards on 17 carries.
Green Bay was up-and-down on defense on the season but finished playing well on that side of the ball. Overall, they rank 14th in the NFL in pass defense and 23rd in run defense. Seattle head coach Pete Carroll has stated Lynch will have a big role in this game and for Seattle to pull off the upset they may need Beast Mode from a few years back.
Rodgers Has Help
Unlike Russell Wilson in the last game, Aaron Rodgers got some help from the defense and the run game this season, for a change.
Rodgers passed for 4,002 yards with 26 TD and 4 INT and two of his picks came in the last two games of the regular season. He did not have a great WR corps to work with but lead WR Davante Adams (997 yards) came up big when it counted, and he has 312 yards through the air in the last three games.
Aaron Jones had a breakout season for Green Bay rushing for 1,084 yards and also was Rodgers 2ndleading target with 49 catches for 474 yards and three TD.
The Green Bay D did not have the best game in their season finale in their 23-20 win over the Detroit Lions but Rodgers passed for 323 yards with two TD and an INT and Jones rushed for 100 yards averaging four yards per carry and had 43 receiving yards.
Seattle only ranks 27th in the NFL defending the pass and 22nd defending the run. They did only give up nine points in the win over the Eagles but were facing Josh McCown, who is a 40-year old backup QB, and they did give up 120 rushing yards.
While the Seahawks have covered in eight of their last nine games as a road underdog they are only 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games.
Green Bay has covered in five of their last six playoff games and are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games facing a team with a winning record.
Those two trends will continue, as the Packers will play good defense, Rodgers and the Green Bay offense will play well, and Lambeau will be too much for Seattle to handle. Wilson will keep his club from getting totally blown out, but Green Bay will still win comfortably and cover the spread in their house.
PICK: Packers -4
Bettorsworld Pick – we’re going to offer a “lean” on the side here and a play on the total.
Our lean is with the Seahawks. Truthfully, we could make a compelling case for either side here. Huge game for Rodgers and his legacy. He’s often called one of the best. Well, in order to back that up, another Super Bowl appearance is a must and there likely won’t be too many more opportunities. (The last time Aaron Rodgers appeared in a Super Bowl was over a decade ago).
On the other side of the ball it’s Russel Wilson who has appeared in two Super Bowls, winning one.
If there’s a game on the board this weekend most likely to be decided by a field goal or less, late, this one gets our vote.
Our model has Green Bay winning by scores of 24-21, 19-18 and 21-10 using full season, last 7 and last 4 games. The two most important and accurate model runs are typically the ones using full season and last 7 (24-21 and 19-18).
With that in mind we are going to lean with the Seahawks +4.5 but we are also going to make a small play on the UNDER 46.5 (1* Key Release)