Packers vs. Buccaneers – Week 6 NFL Free Pick ATS – 10/18/20

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Green Bay Packers (4-0 4-0 ATS) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2 2-3 ATS)

The Packers are 4-0 and coming off a bye week and head to the Sunshine State to play the Bucs, who lost their last game with the GOAT making a late-game gaffe. The Packers are the 2-point road favorite in this NFC matchup with the total sitting at 54.5.

The public has slightly backed Tampa in this game, as they opened as a 2.5-point underdog, and as of Wednesday are a 2-point dog.

While Brady may have made a gaffe when it came to what down it was the Bucs offense was missing several key pieces in the last game, which was a 20-19 loss to the Chicago Bears. WR’s Chris Godwin and Justin Watson, RB’s LeSean McCoy and Leonard Fournette, and TE O.J. Howard all missed the game. Howard is out for this game while the others are all questionable.

The Packers not only are undefeated and have the highest-scoring team in the league, but they are coming off a bye. Aaron Rodgers is one of the front runners for the MVP and has 13 TD and no INT.

Brady has been pretty good in his first season in Tampa, but the run game has not helped him nor have the injuries.

These teams last met in the 2017 season.

The Packers have covered the spread in every game this season and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games facing a team with a winning record.

Will the Bucs Be a Test?

The Packers have only played one game decided by a TD or less in beating the Saints, who are the only team that they have faced that has a winning record. He has put up legit numbers even without star WR Davante Adams, who is questionable for this game.

In the Packers’ last game before their bye, they beat the Atlanta Falcons 30-16. It was vintage Rodgers in the game passing for 327 yards with four TD and no picks and TE Robert Tonyan and RB Jamaal Williams each had at least 95 receiving yards.

Rodgers had been aided by a run game that ranks fifth in the league in rushing yards per game. Aaron Jones leads the team in rushing and rushed for 71 yards in the Atlanta win.

The Bucs have to get to Rodgers and their pass rush has been solid on the season with 17 sacks through five games.

Brady Could Use Some Help

Brady came to Tampa Bay having a loaded offense, but several key players have missed time with injury. He has played pretty well with 12 TD and four IN but only ranks 21st in the league in QBR.

In the loss to the Bears in the last game Brady passed for 253 yards with a TD and no INT but the Bucs only scored six points in the second half.

One player that has helped Brady is Ronald Jones, who has rushed for at least 106 yards in each of the last two games. Still, Brady could use Goodwin back and even though Rob Gronkowski had a season-high in receiving yards in the last game he only had 52.

Green Bay has been pretty good against the pass and the run on the season. Za’Darius Smith has five of the 12 sacks for the Packers and pressuring Brady in this game will be vital for them, especially if the Bucs get back some of his receiving weapons.

Prediction:

The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite and the Bucs are only 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games as a home underdog.

Green Bay will come out firing in this one and Rodgers will have a great game. The microscope is on the QB matchup in this game and Rodgers is the signal-caller that will have the better game and because of that Green Bay will win and cover sending the Bucs to the .500 mark.

PICK: Packers -1