Baltimore Ravens (6-2 4-4 ATS) at New England Patriots (3-5 3-5 ATS)
The Patriots may have saved their season with a win in their last game and need another win against the Ravens Sunday night to stay in the playoff picture. The Ravens are a 7.5-point road favorite in this AFC matchup with the total sitting at 44 points.
The public has backed Baltimore in this game, as they opened as a 6.5-point favorite, and as of Thursday are a 7.5-point favorite.
The Ravens got over their loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers with a great defensive effort in their last game beating the Indianapolis Colts 24-10. They are still two games back of the Steelers in the AFC North.
The Patriots snapped their four-game skid in their last game with a 30-27 win over the winless New York Jets in their last game needing a 51-yard field goal as time expired to do it.
While the Ravens rank second to last in the league in passing yards per game they still rank eighth in the league in ppg. On top of that their D is giving up the fewest ppg in the NFL and they also have the league’s top-ranked rushing offense.
These teams met last season in Baltimore where the Ravens beat the Pats 37-20.
The Ravens are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games facing the Pats in New England.
Calling the Plays?
This week Lamar Jackson stated that the Baltimore offense is not as explosive as last season with the opposing defenses calling their plays.
In the last game, the Ravens stormed back in the second half outscoring the Colts 17-0 in the second half in the 24-10 win. They were outgained 339 yards to 266 yards but came up with two turnovers in the second half.
Reigning MVP Jackson has not been putting up big passing numbers but has run the ball well. He leads the team with 469 rushing yards averaging a more than legit 5.9 yards per carry. The Ravens have four players that have rushed for at least 225 yards.
The Patriots’ defense has been solid against the pass but the run D has not been great and that is a huge concern for them in this big game.
Narrowly Avoiding Embarrassing Loss
In the 30-27 win over the Jets, the Pats scored 13 points in the fourth quarter and needed a late pick and a 51-yard field goal to avoid losing to the woeful and winless New York Jets.
Cam Newton passed for 274 yards in the Jets game with no TD and no INT. While he has not passed for a TD in his last four games he has rushed for four TD in that span. Newton only ranks 25th in the league in QBR and he has to avoid the turnovers, which have plagued him this season.
Damien Harris and Rex Burkhead combined for 127 rushing yards in the win over the Jets and they will need to run the ball well in this game.
Baltimore’s top-ranked scoring defense is balanced but the team has not had the best pass rush and there is a lot of pressure in this game on Newton to deliver.
Prediction
The Ravens are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as a toad favorite while the Pats are only 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games.
While the Pats are coming off a win it was against the weak Jets and the team is simply not good. Baltimore will play great on both sides of the ball and I don’t think this game will be close. The Ravens will get the W and cover sending the Pats to their fifth loss in six games.
PICK: Ravens -7