San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs – Super Bowl Betting Analysis
San Francisco 49ers (15-3 11-6-1 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (14-4 12-5-1 ATS)
The Big Game is set and for Super Bowl 54 the Kansas City Chiefs are a slight 1-point favorite over the San Francisco 49ers with the total sitting at 54.
The public money for the game has been on the 49ers, as they opened as a 1.5-point underdog and as of Friday, January 24 they are a 1-point dog.
The Chiefs are in their first Super Bowl in 50 years while the 49ers are looking for their 6th ring in 7th appearance.
This game is a vastly differing one in terms of the team’s style, as the Chiefs are a pass-first team that can light up the scoreboard while the 49ers have a killer defense and are led by the rushing attack.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense has totaled 84 points in their two playoff games where they won each by double digits. Kansas City is riding an eight-game winning streak and while the offense has been great in the playoffs their defense has not. They have given up 55 points in the two games wherein each they were down by double digits early.
In the AFC title game, the Chiefs beat the Tennessee Titans 35-24.
San Francisco has allowed 30 points in their two playoff games and in the NFC title game they beat the Green Bay Packers 37-20 forcing three turnovers. They have forced five turnovers in the two playoff games while the Chiefs have only forced one.
The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games facing the 49ers.
The last time these teams met it was last season in Kansas City where the Chiefs beat the 49ers 38-27.
Run 49ers, Run!
The 49ers have been great on D in the playoffs and their offense has been all about the run. In their two playoff games, they have rushed for a total of 471 yards.
In their first playoff game, Tevin Coleman rushed for 105 yards and two TD and in the last game against the Packers Raheem Mostert blew up and rushed for 220 yards with four TD.
With the 49ers being able to dominate by rushing the ball QB Jimmy Garoppolo has not had to do much. He only has 27 pass attempts in the two playoff games and in the win over Green Bay in the NFC title game he was 6 for 8 for 77 yards.
The Chiefs held Derrick Henry in check in the win over the Titans in the AFC title game and their run game will be tested in this game, for sure. The thing is that unit has not really been tested much in the playoffs, as they have gotten big leads and their opponents have had to go to the air and abandon the run game.
Mahomes has been THE Man
In the two Chiefs’ playoff games Mahomes has been awesome combining for 615 yards and eight TD and has not been picked off. He has also been the leading rushing in both playoff games with 53 yards on the ground in each game.
Sammy Wadkins had 114 receiving yards in the last game against the Titans and Travis Kelse had 134 receiving yards and three TD the previous week. Tyreek Hill has combined for 108 receiving yards and two TD in the playoffs and Mahomes has no lack of weapons.
Damien Williams has three rushing TD in the playoffs but in the last game against the Titans while he did rush for 45 yards he only averaged 2.6 yards per carry.
One HUGE key for the Chiefs in this game is the play of their offensive line. The 49ers have nine sacks in the two playoff games and while Mahomes is a very mobile QB if the line does not give him time KC may be in for a long game.
Mahomes will be facing a San Francisco pass defense that was the top-ranked unit in the league this season. On top of that in the 49ers two playoff wins their pass D has shut down Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers.
If the Chiefs defend the run well can Jimmy G step up? Can San Fran keep Mahomes in check? Those are two big questions for Super Bowl 54.
I think this Super Bowl will be a good one and by a good one, I mean a close game. However, I don’t see the 49ers containing Mahomes. He and will make some big plays with his arm and get the Chiefs in the end zone several times.
However, the 49ers will have a good ground game and they will keep up with the Chiefs on the scoreboard. In the end, Kansas City has the better QB and that will be key. Mahomes will have some big plays late and he will lead the Chiefs to the Super Bowl win and they will also cover the spread.
Bettorsworld’s Pick – When handicapping any sporting event, the idea is to find an edge and bet accordingly. Finding an edge when betting the Super Bowl, is not likely. It’s the most heavily bet sporting event in the world.
This is a great matchup between two deserving teams. No question, either team can win. With a pointspread of -1, we’re simply being asked to pick the straight up winner.
As difficult as it is to find an edge, the angle we are going to use is to look at both teams yards per point numbers on the road.
Here is how we make a line, using yards per point numbers.
Chiefs road yards per point numbers – offense 13.5 defense 18.9
49ers road yards per point numbers – offense 14.1 defense 15.6
Remember, the higher the number on defense, the better. The lower the number on offense, the better.
We subtract the offensive number from the defensive number to get a differential.
Chiefs 18.9 minus 13.5 = +5.4
49ers 15.6 minus 14.1 = +1.5
5.4 – 1.5 = 3.9
So, we have a line using yards per point road numbers of Chiefs by 3.9.
That’s a slim edge no doubt, but an edge nonetheless.
To further strengthen the case for the Chiefs, we’ll take a look at our model.
When using full season data, our model throws us a monkey wrench, as it comes up with a score prediction of 49ers 26 Chiefs 25.
However, when we use data only from the last 7 games for each team, the score prediction is Chiefs 31 49ers 23.
Extra weight should be given to more recent results. It shows current form. How a team is playing right now.
The Chiefs knocked on the door last year by losing in the AFC Championship game. THis year, they kicked the door down by winning the AFC Championship. The logical next step, is a Super Bowl win.
Truth is, the feeling here is that once the Chiefs came back from being down 24-0 to the Texans, there would be no stopping them. No lead is safe. That comeback alone, gives the Chiefs a psychological edge here to go along with their statistical edge.
Our Pick – Chiefs -1
***Note – if you would like FREE access to our consensus report on Super Bowl Sunday, shoot an email to [email protected] and we’ll send you a free log in for the day!