Tennessee Titans (10-4 7-7 ATS) at Green Bay Packers (11-3 8-6 ATS)
In a game that is big for both teams the Packers host the Titans in a non-conference affair. The Packers are a 3-point home favorite with the total sitting at 56.
The public has backed the Titans in this game, as they opened as a 4-point underdog and as of Thursday are a 3-point dog.
The Titans are tied with the Indianapolis Colts atop the AFC South and can win the division if they win this game and the Colts lose. They have the tiebreaker over Indy because of a better division record.
The Packers have the NFC North in the bag and if they beat the Titans the Seahawks lose to the Rams Green Bay will clinch the top-seed in the NFC and get a first-round bye in the playoffs.
The Titans have won two in a row and four of their last five games. They are the highest-scoring team in the league averaging 31.1 ppg and their offense was even better in their last game, which was a 46-25 win over the Detroit Lions.
The Packers have won four in a row and ix of their last seven games. They beat the Carolina Panthers 24-16 in their last game where after MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers was not happy with the offensive performance. Green Bay is the third highest-scoring team in the league and to say they are balanced would be an understatement ranking eight in the league in passing yards per game and rushing yards per game.
The underdog has covered in four of the last five games between these teams.
Eclipsing Season High
In their last game in the 46-25 win over the Lions, the Titans put up the most points they had this season. Ryan Tannehill passed for three TD and ran for two more and Derrick Henry rushed for 147 yards.
Henry leads the league in rushing yards and he has rushed for at least 133 yards in four of his last five games including the last two.
While Henry is the big-gun for Tennessee, Tannehill ranks fourth in the league in QBR, has a TD to INT ratio of 31-5, and has eight TD and only one pick in his last four games.
The Win is What Counts
Rodgers was not happy with the offense after the Packers’ last game while in the win they only scored three points in the second half. In the team’s last two games they have been close and come facing teams that are well out of the playoff picture.
Rodgers is in the MVP conversation and while he only passed for 143 yards in the last game he has 11 TD and no INT in the last four games. He was sacked five times in the win over Carolina in the last game but in this game will be facing a weak Tennessee pass rush that only has 14 sacks on the season.
Aaron Jones leads the Packers in rushing yards, went for 145 in the last game, and has rushed for at least 130 yards in two of his last three games,
The Tennessee defense has been OK on the season but must be better in this game since they have a less than stellar pass rush facing Rodgers and company.
Prediction
The Titans have covered in four of their last five games as a road underdog and will be facing a Packers’ team that has failed to cover in six of their last seven games after a win.
I look for Tennessee to have a good game on offense, but they will be facing the beast in Rodgers, who is due for a big game. He will have one in this non-conference affair, which will be a high scoring one that Green Bay will win and cover.
PICK: Packers -3