Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots – Week 16 MNF Pick – 12/28/20

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bills vs. patriots pick
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Buffalo Bills (11-3 9-5 ATS) at New England Patriots (6-8 6-8 ATS)

The Bills ended the stranglehold the Patriots have had on the AFC East winning the division this season and they look to sweep the season series in New England on Monday night. The Bills are a 7-point favorite in this division game with the total at 46.

The public has really backed the Bills in this one, as they opened as a 4.5-point favorite and as of Thursday are a 7-point favorite.

The Bills have won four in a row and in their last eight games they only have one loss. The team is tied with the Steelers for the second-best record in the AFC and in their four-game win streak, they won every game by double figures.

The Pats are not in the playoffs for the first time since 2008. The team has played pretty good D on the season but the offense only ranks 26th in ppg and in their last two games, both losses, they have only totaled 15 points.

Earlier this season in Buffalo the Bills beat the Patriots 24-21.

The Bills are 3-1-2 ATS in their last six road games against the Pats.

Buffalo has Been a Great Bet

Not only are the Bills riding high as the AFC East champs and a four-game win streak but the team has covered the spread in their last six games.

Josh Allen leads a Bills’ team that ranks second in the league in passing yards per game and fifth in ppg. The team blew out the Denver Broncos 48-19 in their last game where they racked up 534 yards. Allen passed for 359 yards with two TD and no INT in the win and has eight TD and one pick in his last three games.

Stefon Diggs ranks third in the NFL in receiving yards and has at least 130 yards in the last two games.

Buffalo’s run game has not been great on the season ranking 21st in rushing yard per game but Devin Singletary has rushed for 61 yards in two of the last three games.

The Patriots’ pass D has been solid on the season, but the run defense is giving up an average of 133 rushing yards per game.

It Helps to Score

After putting up 45 points in a win over the Chargers the Pats’ offense has stalled in the last two games totaling 15 points. Newton only ranks 29th in the league in QBR, has been sacked seven times in the last two games and only has one passing TD in the last four games with none in the last two.

It is key that the Pats don’t get down early, as they have to play top their strength, which is running the ball with Damien Harris and Newton. While the Pats rushed for 190 yards in the loss to the Bills earlier this season they also gave up 188 rushing yards.

Prediction

The Bills are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 road games but the Pats are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a home underdog.

I have to say weird to go against the Pats at home but no Brady and no offense I have to do so. Allen will play well and while at home I see New England playing the Bills pretty close Buffalo is riding high and they will get the W and also cover the spread for the seventh game in a row.

PICK: Bills -7