The Kansas City Chiefs will host the LA Chargers on Thursday Night Football in a game that kicks off at 8:15 PM EST to start week 2 in the NFL. The Chiefs opened as -3 point favorites at CIRCA in Vegas and now sit at -4.5 at betonline. The total is 54.5.
These two reams opened up with wins in week 1. The Chiefs dominated the Cardinals in a game that was 37-7 after 3 quarters. They had 488 yards of total offense and won the first down battle 33 to 18. The game was never in doubt.
The Chargers also won in week 1, beating the Raiders 24-19. The Chargers got off to a 17-3 lead and managed to stay ahead the rest of the way. But statistically speaking, the game was pretty even.
Here’s a quick look at recent meetings between the Chiefs and Chargers.
Head to Head
head-to-head history (lined games):
12/16/2021 Kansas City 34 - 3.0 at LA Chargers 28
9/26/2021 LA Chargers 30 + 7.0 at Kansas City 24
1/ 3/2021 LA Chargers 38 - 4.5 at Kansas City 21
9/20/2020 Kansas City 23 - 9.0 at LA Chargers 20
12/29/2019 LA Chargers 21 + 9.0 at Kansas City 31
11/18/2019 LA Chargers 17 + 4.0 vs Kansas City 24
12/13/2018 LA Chargers 29 + 3.5 at Kansas City 28
9/ 9/2018 Kansas City 38 + 3.5 at LA Chargers 28
12/16/2017 LA Chargers 13 - 1.5 at Kansas City 30
9/24/2017 Kansas City 24 - 3.0 at LA Chargers 10
average outcome:
LA Chargers 23.4 Kansas City 27.7
margin = 4.30
time-weighted average outcome:
LA Chargers 24.4 Kansas City 27.5
margin = 3.09
average result when the home team is Kansas City
LA Chargers 26.2 Kansas City 26.8
margin = 0.60
average result when the home team is LA Chargers
Kansas City 29.8 LA Chargers 21.5
margin = -8.25
50.00 % of games went Over
100.00 % went Over at Kansas City
average total points per game = 51.10
time-weighted average total = 51.91
the home team covered 33.33 % of the time
the road team covered 66.67 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -3.22
the favorite covered 50.00 % of the time
the underdog covered 50.00 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -2.50
the favorite won SU 60.00 % of the time
LA Chargers covered 40.00 % of the time
Kansas City covered 60.00 % of the time
Kansas City covered 40.00 % of the time at home
Kansas City covered 33.33 % of the time as home favorites
Our Pick
Now, we realize these two teams play twice every year and we’re aware of the results from a year ago. With that said, below is the way our model sees this game using different statistical time frame parameters.
Early in this season we are obviously limited in the amount of current season data that goes into the predictions. So, for the 1st 4 weeks of the season, we use a combination of last years stats and this years stats.
Is it useful? It can be. But there are also many new faces on all of these teams and with that can come a new identity. The NFL is a league where teams can go from worst to 1st in one year, so use any early season model predictions with caution.
LA Chargers 54.5 24 Kansas City -3.5 37 using full season data LA Chargers 54.5 26 Kansas City -3.5 62 using last 4 games data LA Chargers 54.5 25 Kansas City -3.5 55 using last 7 games data
Clearly the model likes the over and why not, this is a high powered Chiefs offense that scored 40+ five times last year. The last 3 times these two teams met we saw 62, 54 and 59 points scored.
The model also likes the Chiefs and again, why not. This is their home opener and they certainly look to be the stronger team, still.
But consider this as well. In the NFL, more times than not, if you concentrate on picking the straight up winner in a game (not always easy) you’ll also get the cover. In week 1 the straight up winner covered the number 12 times and lost 2 (there was 1 tie). So, 12-2 ATS if you were able to just pick the straight up winners.
CHIEFS -4
LAC/KC OVER 54