Chargers at Chiefs Week 2 NFL Pick – 9-15

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chargers at chiefs pick
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The Kansas City Chiefs will host the LA Chargers on Thursday Night Football in a game that kicks off at 8:15 PM EST to start week 2 in the NFL. The Chiefs opened as -3 point favorites at CIRCA in Vegas and now sit at -4.5 at betonline. The total is 54.5.

These two reams opened up with wins in week 1. The Chiefs dominated the Cardinals in a game that was 37-7 after 3 quarters. They had 488 yards of total offense and won the first down battle 33 to 18. The game was never in doubt.

The Chargers also won in week 1, beating the Raiders 24-19. The Chargers got off to a 17-3 lead and managed to stay ahead the rest of the way. But statistically speaking, the game was pretty even.

Here’s a quick look at recent meetings between the Chiefs and Chargers.

Head to Head

head-to-head history (lined games):
  
12/16/2021  Kansas City              34  - 3.0  at LA Chargers              28
 9/26/2021  LA Chargers              30  + 7.0  at Kansas City              24
 1/ 3/2021  LA Chargers              38  - 4.5  at Kansas City              21
 9/20/2020  Kansas City              23  - 9.0  at LA Chargers              20
12/29/2019  LA Chargers              21  + 9.0  at Kansas City              31
11/18/2019  LA Chargers              17  + 4.0  vs Kansas City              24
12/13/2018  LA Chargers              29  + 3.5  at Kansas City              28
 9/ 9/2018  Kansas City              38  + 3.5  at LA Chargers              28
12/16/2017  LA Chargers              13  - 1.5  at Kansas City              30
 9/24/2017  Kansas City              24  - 3.0  at LA Chargers              10
  
   average outcome:
     LA Chargers             23.4  Kansas City             27.7
     margin =   4.30
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     LA Chargers             24.4  Kansas City             27.5
     margin =   3.09
  
   average result when the home team is Kansas City            
     LA Chargers             26.2  Kansas City             26.8
     margin =   0.60
  
   average result when the home team is LA Chargers            
     Kansas City             29.8  LA Chargers             21.5
     margin =  -8.25
  
    50.00 % of games went Over
   100.00 % went Over at Kansas City            
  
   average total points per game =  51.10
   time-weighted average total   =  51.91
  
   the home team covered  33.33 % of the time
   the road team covered  66.67 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -3.22
  
   the favorite  covered  50.00 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  50.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -2.50
  
   the favorite won SU    60.00 % of the time
  
   LA Chargers             covered  40.00 % of the time
   Kansas City             covered  60.00 % of the time
  
   Kansas City             covered  40.00 % of the time at home
   Kansas City             covered  33.33 % of the time as home favorites

Our Pick

Now, we realize these two teams play twice every year and we’re aware of the results from a year ago. With that said, below is the way our model sees this game using different statistical time frame parameters.

Early in this season we are obviously limited in the amount of current season data that goes into the predictions. So, for the 1st 4 weeks of the season, we use a combination of last years stats and this years stats.

Is it useful? It can be. But there are also many new faces on all of these teams and with that can come a new identity. The NFL is a league where teams can go from worst to 1st in one year, so use any early season model predictions with caution.

LA Chargers               54.5          24           
Kansas City               -3.5          37 using full season data
  
LA Chargers               54.5          26           
Kansas City               -3.5          62 using last 4 games data
  
LA Chargers               54.5          25           
Kansas City               -3.5          55 using last 7 games data

Clearly the model likes the over and why not, this is a high powered Chiefs offense that scored 40+ five times last year. The last 3 times these two teams met we saw 62, 54 and 59 points scored.

The model also likes the Chiefs and again, why not. This is their home opener and they certainly look to be the stronger team, still.

But consider this as well. In the NFL, more times than not, if you concentrate on picking the straight up winner in a game (not always easy) you’ll also get the cover. In week 1 the straight up winner covered the number 12 times and lost 2 (there was 1 tie). So, 12-2 ATS if you were able to just pick the straight up winners.

CHIEFS -4

LAC/KC OVER 54