Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears – Week 10 NFL Pick

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In a Thursday night primetime matchup between two teams that have a good chance at the #1 pick in the next draft the Chicago Bears host the Carolina Panthers.

The Bears are a 3.5-point favorite in this game with the total sitting at 39.5. The public has been backing Chicago so far, as they opened as a 3-point favorite and as of Tuesday are a 3.5-point favorite.

The Panthers and the Arizona Cardinals are the only teams in the league with less than two wins. They began the season 0-6 before winning their first game but were back to their losing ways in the last game losing at home 27-13 to the Indianapolis Colts. Carolina failed to cover as a 1.5-point underdog and they have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games.

The Bears (2-7) lost their second in a row in their last game losing on the road to the New Orleans Saints 24-17. They did cover the spread as a 10-point underdog and they have covered in two of their last three games.

On the season the Panthers are 1-6-1 ATS with an O/U record of 3-5 and the Bears are 3-5-1 ATS with an O/U record of 6-3.

These teams have not met since the 2020 season.

Big Mistakes Overshadow Good Defense

In the 27-13 loss to the Colts the Panthers played good defense but they threw two pick-6s, which really hurt. They outgained the Colts 275 yards to 198 yards, only gave up 78 rushing yards, but had three costly turnovers.

Rookie QB and #1 pick in the last draft Bryce Young had a tough day with 173 passing yards and a TD and three picks. Chuba Hubbard and Young combined for 99 rushing yards and Hayden Hurst led the team with 54 receiving yards with 48 coming on one catch.

Carolina only ranks 26th in scoring (17.5 ppg), 27th in passing yards per game, and 24th in rushing yards per game.

This has not been a good rookie campaign for Young (1,375 yards 8 TD 7 INT), who ranks 32nd in the league in QBR. He did have a couple of pretty good games in the two previous to the last one where in each he had one TD and no picks but in the last three games has been sacked 14 times.

Hubbard (328 yards 1 TD) is only averaging 3.9 yards per carry and has 86 rushing yards in the last two games. Miles Sanders (229 yards 1 TD) is only averaging 3.3 yards per carry and has not panned out for the Panthers after rushing for 1,269 yards last season.

Adam Thielen leads the team with 610 receiving yards while no other player has more than 229 yards.

The Panthers will be up against a Bears’ defense that ranks tied for 28th in points against (26.9 ppg), 28th in pass D, and fourth in run D.

Turnovers are Killer

In the loss to the Saints the Bears only lost by one touchdown and the outgained New Orleans 368 yards to 301 yards but had five turnovers and did not force any. Chicago had a chance to tie or take the lead late but rookie QB Tyson Bagent was strip sacked.

Bagent did pass for 220 yards with two TD but was picked off three times and lost a fumble late. D’Onta Foreman and Bagent combined for 153 rushing yards and Darnell Mooney led the way with 82 receiving yards and Cole Kmet had 55 receiving yards and two TD. Kmet was injured in the game and is listed as questionable for Thursday night.

Starting QB Justin Fields (1,201 yards 11 TD 6 INT 26th in QBR) has missed the last three games with a thumb injury and while returning back to practice this week he is listed as questionable. Bagent has five INT in the last two games.

While Foreman leads the team with only 287 rushing yards, he has rushed for at least 65 yards in three of the last four games and in two of the last three has rushed for at least 83 yards.

The Bears’ offensive unit will be facing a Panthers’ D that ranks tied for 31st in points against (28.3 ppg), fifth in pass defense, and 28th in run defense.

Betting Trends

The Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.

The Panthers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.

The Panthers have an Over record of 5-2 in their last seven road games.

The Bears are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six home games.

The Bears are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games.

The Bears have an Over record of 14-6 in their last 20 games.

 

 OUR PICK – OVER 38

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