Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders – Week 5 NFL Pick

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bears at commanders pick
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The Commanders have lost their last two games and in the Thursday night game play host to the winless Bears.

The oddsmakers have the Commanders as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 44.5 points. The public has been betting this game even and as of Tuesday morning the line or the total have not moved.

The Bears fell to 0-4 in their last game in a 31-28 home loss to the Denver Broncos. The game was a Pick with Chicago a 3-point underdog and they had failed to cover the spread in their previous three games.

The Commanders dropped to 2-2 in their last game in a tough 34-31 OT road loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. They did cover the spread as a big 10-point underdog and they are 2-2 ATS this season.

Last season in the Windy City these teams met and it was far from a barnburner, to say the least, in a 12-7 Washington win.

Looking at the stats it is not surprising the Bears are winless ranking 22nd in the league in points per game and second to last in points allowed.

Falling Apart in the Second Half

In the loss to the Broncos the Bears were up 28-7 early in the third quarter but were outscored 24-0 the rest of the way. They lost even outgaining Denver 471 yards to 311 yards but they had two turnovers and did not force any.

Justin Fields had his best game of the season against the Broncos passing for 335 yards with four TD and an INT and D.J. Moore had 131 receiving yards and a score. Chicago also had a solid ground game with 171 rushing yards with Khalil Herbert leading the way with 103 yards.

Fields (861 yards 7 TD 5 INT) has taken a lot of heat this season and looks to build on the last game. He still only ranks 28th in the league in QBR and has run much less this season than the last one when he led the team with 1,143 rushing yards.

The Bears will be facing a Commanders’ defense that only ranks 20th in the league against the pass and 21st against the run. Washington has given up at least 33 points in each of the last three games.

Chicago comes into this game losers of their last 14 games.

Not Quite the Gambler

Washington head coach Ron Rivera has the nickname Riverboat Ron for being a gambler on the sidelines but that was not the case in the loss to the Eagles. He decided not to go for two points and the win after a TD with only two seconds left and decided for the extra point and overtime where the Commanders lost.

The Commanders did have a solid comeback in the last game after a terrible third quarter and for the game were outgained 415 yards to 365 yards.

Sam Howell bounced back from a terrible game in a bad loss to the Bills by playing well in Philly passing for 290 yards with a TD and no INT. Terry McLaurin led the way with 86 rushing yards and Brian Robinson Jr. and Howell combined for 85 rushing yards.

Howell has been sacked, by far, the most of any QB in the league and was taken down five times against the Eagles and nine times in the previous game. However, that may not hurt them much in this game facing a Bears’ team that has the fewest sacks in the league (2).

Chicago ranks 18th in the league defending the run and only 29th defending the pass.

Betting Trends

The Bears are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games.

The Bears are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.

Every game for the Bears this season has gone Over.

The Commanders are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games.

 Our Pick – Commanders -6.5

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